📊 BCI : All Commodity ETF

> Bullish breakout

> Commodities look hot

📊 UPDATE: December USD, Gold, & Silver

🚨 CME Product Revision

New Product Summary: Initial Listing of Event Contracts on Economic Indicators 

 - Effective December 06, 2025

🔗LINK :
https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2025/10/25-324.html?source=rss

📊 December Gold, Silver, & USD

🏛️ Deutsche Bank: Eurozone resilience means ECB’s easing cycle is over

📈 Classical Technical Analysis Price Patterns

📊 Dec US Dollar DXZ25

📊 Dec Silver SIZ25

‼️ Gold : Largest Weekly Outflow In US History : $7.5 Billion

🚨 CME Is Resetting of Price Limits for Grain Futures

Details:

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/ser/2025/10/ser-9629.html?source=rss

🐮 Cattle Smuggling : Mexico

Cattle smuggling into and through Mexico is a major criminal enterprise, primarily run by organized crime syndicates. 

The illicit trade poses significant public health threats and has recently fueled a New World screwworm outbreak, leading the U.S. to repeatedly suspend livestock imports from Mexico since late 2024.

The criminal operation 

• Source of smuggled cattle: Most illegal cattle are brought into southern Mexico from Central American countries, including Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

• Organized crime control: Drug cartels and other criminal groups have expanded their operations to include cattle trafficking, seeing it as a lucrative, low-risk business.

• Modus operandi: The animals are illegally moved across the border—often via rafts on rivers—and are then "laundered" into Mexico's legal supply chain using falsified health documents and black-market ear tags. In a single year, an estimated 800,000 cattle are smuggled into Mexico.

Consequences of smuggling 

• Disease outbreak: The illegal movement of livestock is a major factor in the re-emergence of the New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The pest, which was eradicated from the U.S. in the 1970s, has been found dangerously close to the U.S.-Mexico border.

• Economic disruption:

• The U.S. has closed its border to Mexican cattle several times since late 2024, halting a trade worth approximately $1 billion annually and contributing to higher beef prices in the U.S..

• Mexican ranchers have suffered greatly from the import ban, with losses estimated at $25 to $30 million per month.

• Environmental and social impact:

• Illegal ranching, fueled by this illicit trade, is causing deforestation and environmental degradation in protected areas in Central America.

• It has also been linked to violence against Indigenous communities in these areas.

Biosecurity and enforcement challenges 

• Difficulty tracking origin: Smuggled cattle arrive in Mexico without proper documentation or sanitary inspections, making it nearly impossible to trace their origins.

• Corruption: Corrupt officials and lax enforcement at Mexico's southern border have allowed criminal networks to operate with little resistance.

• Inadequate resources: Mexican authorities often have limited capacity to address the problem, and cattle ranchers say federal action is needed to stop the illegal trade.

The path forward 

• International cooperation: The U.S. and Mexico are collaborating on efforts to eradicate the screwworm, with the U.S. investing in a sterile fly production facility in Mexico.

• Improved traceability: Modernizing Mexico's livestock traceability system with harder-to-counterfeit technologies, such as electronic chips, has been proposed as a solution.

• Enhanced surveillance: Both countries are heightening surveillance along the border to detect and prevent further spread of the screwworm.

📈 Dec US Dollar DXZ25 : Monthly

Fed Watch For Dec 10 Rate Decision

as of Oct 29, 2025

📊 Debt To GDP Ratios

⚠️ Wednesday : 2 Rate Decisions

🔷 US Inflation Rate Rises Less Than Expected

The US annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly below market expectations of 3.1%. 

It was the highest rate since January, mainly due to a jump in energy prices. 

Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 3.0% from 3.1%, while monthly headline and core CPI increased 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

🔷 US Dollar Update

📉 December Silver SIZ25 : UPDATE

Global Market Update

• China published fourth plenum communique: approved five-year plan, and aiming for a 'big increase' in the level of tech self-reliance.
• European equities are mostly higher, whilst US equity futures are mixed; TSLA -3%, IBM -7.2%, Quantum stocks +10%.
• DXY is flat, Antipodeans lead whilst havens lag in quiet trade.
• Bonds are pressured as the risk tone sees pockets of improvement; decent UK auction sparked little move in Gilts at the time.
• New Russian sanctions push crude benchmarks higher, XAU continues to consolidate.
• Looking ahead, Existing Home Sales (Sep), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Oct), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug), Australian Flash PMIs (Oct), (Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims), CBRT Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), European Council (23rd-24th). Speakers including ECB's Lane, Fed's Bowman & Barr (Fed on Blackout). Earnings from Intel, American Airlines, Freeport McMoRan, Blackstone, T-Mobile US & Valero Energy.

---

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump's administration is considering a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software, while the new export controls under consideration by the US could curb exports on a wide range of goods to China, and the plan would retaliate against China's rare earth export restrictions if adopted, according to Reuters sources. However, the sources said that the measure, details of which are being reported for the first time, may not move forward, and administration officials could announce the measure to put pressure on China but stop short of implementing it, while narrower policy proposals are also being discussed.
• US President Trump said a long meeting is scheduled with Chinese President Xi in South Korea, and he thinks something will work out, while he thinks he will make a deal with Chinese President Xi and could make a deal on soybeans. Trump added that they could even make a deal on nuclear and thinks he will talk to Xi about Russian oil, as well as ending the war in Ukraine. Trump also commented that tariffs are vital and that they might go to the Supreme Court for the tariffs case.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was leaving on Wednesday for Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials and is hoping they can iron things out, while he will have two days of fulsome talks with Chinese officials in Malaysia. Bessent said it would be a shame to waste the first meeting of Trump and China's Xi during Trump's second term, as well as noted that he is contemplating the US and allies' next move if China talks fail.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said any export controls regarding China will be in coordination with G7 allies.
• Taiwan US envoy said they are close to reaching a trade agreement with the US.
• China Commerce Ministry says Vice Premier Lifeng will hold talks with the USA regarding trade in Malaysia within 24-27 October.

---

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly firmer but with some slight underperformance in the DAX 40, which is being pressured by post-earning losses in SAP (-2.4%).
• European sectors are mixed. Energy takes the top spot, joined closely by Consumer Products; the latter boosted by upside in Kering (+9%) after the Co. reported strong Q3 metrics. To the downside, Evolution (7%) weighs on the Travel & Leisure sector.
• US equity futures are mixed; the RTY gains, whilst the ES & NQ hold around the unchanged mark. Key pre-market movers: Tesla (-3%, profits slip despite reporting record rev.), IBM (-7%, top- and bottom-line beats but cloud rev. growth slows), Quantum stocks (US President Trump's administration is in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing firms).
• Anti-obesity drug prescribing shows signs of levelling off, via Axios.

---

FX

• USD is slightly firmer/flat and trades within a very narrow 98.92-99.10 range; lack of data releases and Fed speak (due to blackout) has led to quiet trade for the Dollar. However, this should all pick-up on Friday, with the BLS set to release US CPI, despite the government shutdown. There have been some important trade-related newsflow recently; Reuters reported that the Trump administration is mulling a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software. Though the piece suggested that the US may not go forward with the plan, and may only be used to apply pressure on China amid trade negotiations. On that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to meet with China's VP in Malaysia over the weekend; Bessent said he hopes "to iron things out".
• EUR is flat/incrementally lower vs USD. EUR/USD is currently trading in a 1.1591-1.1614 range, which is towards the mid-point of Wednesday's bounds. Overnight, ECB's Kazaks said "it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut" – comments which are in contrast to Villeroy (cut more likely than hike) and Kocher (sees equal chance).
• JPY is right at the foot of the G10 pile, alongside haven peer CHF; nothing really driving the "risk-on" sentiment seen in the FX-space today, but perhaps some focus on US Treasury Secretary Bessent's meeting with China VP this weekend – it is worth caveating that other trade-related reporting has been broadly negative (discussed above). Newsflow out of Japan has been very light, with USD/JPY largely moving at the whim of the Dollar; currently trades at the upper end of a 151.82-152.66 range, a peak which marks a WTD best. Further upside could see a breach back above 153.00 and then to the 10th October high at 152.27.
• GBP is flat, taking a breather following the prior day's subdued trade in the aftermath of a softer-than-expected inflation report. Newsflow since has been incredibly light, and this has been reflected in Cable, which currently trades in a narrow 1.3329-1.3362 range; at the mid-point of Wednesday's confines.
• Antipodeans are at the top of the G10 pile, but little fresh behind the strength; though upside which seemingly coincided with an early-morning uptick in copper prices.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0918 vs exp. 7.1205 (Prev. 7.0954)

---

FIXED INCOME

• USTs were softer by a tick or two in APAC trade and have continued to dip into and throughout the European morning. Pressure a function of the pockets of improvement in the risk tone as the US-China situation isn't perhaps as bad as first thought, a point added to by the fact the US' Bessent and China's He are still set to meet in Malaysia from tomorrow.
• Thus far, down to a 113-16+ trough with downside of nine ticks at most and approaching the 113-10 WTD base. Ahead, Fed's Barr and Bowman are scheduled, but the blackout means this will be a non-event. Data-wise, the shutdown continues to limit, but any comments from the KC survey on inflation are of note ahead of Friday's CPI.
• EGBs followed suit to the above. Bunds below the 130.00 mark, matching the 129.24 low from Tuesday, but yet to test 129.76 from Monday. EGBs hit by the better tone around trade as outlined above. Further pressure for fixed income also stemming from the continued advances in energy prices, biasing yields higher.
• Gilts, unsurprisingly, saw a softer start after closing with gains of nearly 60 ticks on Wednesday. Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks and despite a brief move into the green have since conformed to the bearish bias and trade lower by 15 ticks, an amount comparable to Bunds.
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.125% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.83, average yield 4.00%, tail 0.7bps

---

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are strong today as the US placed new sanctions on Russian oil companies. After an initial c. USD 1.30/bbl move late on Wednesday, WTI and Brent trended higher during APAC trade from USD 59.72/bbl and USD 63.86/bbl respectively to peak at USD 60.90/bbl and USD 65.04/bbl. Currently, benchmarks are continuing to trade higher to new session highs at USD 61.79/bbl and USD 65.96/bbl respectively. To recap, late in Wednesday's session, the US placed sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil because of "Russia's lack of serious commitment to a peace process".
• Spot XAU is a little firmer and is currently oscillating in a tight USD 4066-4137/oz band as the metal consolidates following Tuesday's selloff from record highs.
• Base metals traded rangebound during the APAC session but broke out of recent ranges following Antofagasta copper production and confirmation of a China-US meeting in Malaysia. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight c. USD 50/t range during APAC trade before trending higher and is currently making fresh session highs at USD 10.82k/t.
• Reliance, India will be halting Russian oil imports as part of the term-deal with Rosneft due to the latest US sanctions, via Reuters citing sources
• Russian oil supply to India is set to fall to near zero, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
• Indian state refiners reviewing bills of lading for Russian oil cargoes arriving post-November 21st to ensure no supply comes directly from US-sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, according to a source cited by Reuters

---

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• French Business Climate Mfg (Oct) 101.0 vs. Exp. 96.0 (Prev. 96.0, Rev. 97)
• UK CBI Trends - Orders (Oct) -38.0 (Prev. -27.0)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• SNB Minutes (Sep): discussed diverging interest rate developments in the US and EZ with experts. Board concluded that the current implementation of monetary policy was appropriate under various scenarios.
• German Council of Tax Experts expect EUR 33.6bln more in total tax revenue in 2025-2029 vs May; German Finance Minister says more positive economic outlook is reflected in rising tax rev.; Gov. is bearing most of growth booster expenses

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said interest rates are down, while he criticised the Fed chair, and noted that he will be doing something very quickly to get beef prices down.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they might see CPI coming down next month and the month after, while he thinks housing prices are a lagging indicator, and they are going to see substantial tax refunds for Americans.
• US Republican Senators are said to consider a bill to keep SNAP program benefits flowing during the government shutdown, according to POLITICO.
• US President Trump's administration is in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing firms, according to WSJ.

---

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US Secretary of State Rubio said the Israeli Knesset's moves on West Bank annexation threaten the Gaza peace deal.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said it didn't feel right to have a meeting with Russian President Putin, so he cancelled it and felt it was time for Russian sanctions but hopes sanctions won't be on for long. Trump also stated that whenever he speaks with Russian President Putin, they are good conversations, but they don't go anywhere, while he added that sanctions will hopefully make Russian President Putin reasonable.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said they would still like to meet with the Russians and are always going to be interested in engaging with Russia if there's an opportunity to achieve peace.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a substantial pick up in Russia sanctions was expected to be announced on Wednesday or Thursday. Bessent separately commented that Russian President Putin has not come to the table in an honest manner and President Trump is disappointed with where we are in talks to end the war, while he said the incoming Russia sanctions will be among the largest and the US is urging European and G7 allies, plus Canada and Australia, to join the sanctions push.
• US Treasury Department announced it is imposing sanctions on Russia related to oil and is targeting Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil in the latest batch of sanctions, while it added that OFAC is designating a number of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries. Furthermore, it stated that all entities owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by Rosneft and Lukoil are blocked, even if not designated by OFAC and it called on Russia to immediately agree to a ceasefire.
• Ukraine President Zelensky says a ceasefire is a possibility. More pressure on Russia is needed. Will not agree to territorial concessions.
• Russia's Deputy Security Council Chair Medvedev states that the US is a Russian opponent and that US President Trump is on a warpath, his actions are like an act of war.

OTHER

• North Korea said its missile test on Wednesday was successful and was for self-defence, while it added that the missiles tested were hypersonic projectiles, according to KCNA.

---

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades around USD 109k with Ethereum also a touch firmer and just shy of USD 3.9k.

---

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative handover from Wall St, where sentiment was weighed on by US-China frictions.
• ASX 200 traded rangebound as participants digested quarterly updates, and with gains in energy and utilities offsetting the weakness in tech and mining.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed after gapping lower at the open to beneath the 49,000 level despite a weaker currency.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative with the mainland pressured amid US-China tensions after reports that the Trump admin considers restricting globally-produced exports to China made with or containing US software.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoK kept the base rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected, with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin Sung-Hwan dissented and said a rate cut is needed to support growth. BoK said it will maintain the rate cut stance to mitigate downside risk to economic growth, and will adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts, while it will closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, as well as examine the impact on inflation and financial stability. BoK Governor Rhee revealed that four board members said the door for rate cuts should be open for the near future, while two board members said current rates should be maintained. Rhee also said that a rate cut at the meeting could have accelerated the upswing in property prices and that it was too early to tell if the rate-cut stance could continue through next year. Furthermore, he said there is greater focus on financial stability among board members, and noted that the chip cycle and US-China trade talks should be watched as the board prepares for the November forecast revision.
• Japan's RENGO says it will be seeking wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026 shunto negotiations
• China publishes fourth plenum communique, via Xinhua; approves draft of next five-year plan as plenum ends, aims to boost trade innovation, further open markets and extend bilateral investment opportunities. Plans measures to stabilise the job market. Will strengthen public opinion guidance to effectively prevent ideological risks. To enhance social security controls to legally combat crime. Promotes long-term prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macau. Will persevere in advancing comprehensive and strict governance over the Communist party. Aiming for a 'big increase' in the level of tech self-reliance. To comprehensively enhance independent innovation capabilities.

📊 Historical Gold Cycles

📊 Global Helium Reserves

• Just five countries control the majority of known helium reserves, underscoring its status as a strategically scarce resource.
• As terrestrial reserves decline, helium-3 mining on the Moon is gaining attention as a potential future source.

Helium may be best known for making balloons float, but it plays a far more serious role in modern industry—from cooling superconducting magnets in MRI machines to enabling cutting-edge research in quantum computing. Yet despite its critical uses, helium remains surprisingly scarce.

The visualization above from Made Visual Daily highlights estimated helium reserves by country, using data from Frontiers International.

Here's a closer look at the data:

The U.S. dominates with 20.6 billion m³ of helium reserves, more than twice the next-highest, Qatar, with 10.1 billion m³. Algeria, Russia, and Canada also make the list, while the rest of the world accounts for a relatively minor share.

Note: U.S. helium reserve estimates vary significantly depending on methodology. The figure above includes broader assessments of total reserves and resources, including reserves lacking full production history data.

Why Helium is So Valuable

Helium is unique in that it's a non-renewable resource on Earth. It's formed deep underground through radioactive decay and often extracted as a byproduct of natural gas production. Once released into the atmosphere, helium escapes into space—meaning it can't be recovered or recycled easily.

Its properties as an inert, ultra-light, and extremely cold gas make it indispensable for cryogenics, semiconductor manufacturing, and aerospace technologies. As such, helium is a resource not to be taken lightly.

Supply Risks and Strategic Reserves

Despite its importance, global helium supply chains remain fragile. In recent years, a combination of plant shutdowns, geopolitical tensions, and market fluctuations has led to multiple helium shortages. With global production at just 0.2 billion m³ per year, reserves could become even more critical in the coming decades.

Looking to the Moon for Helium-3

Interestingly, the Moon may offer a futuristic solution. Helium-3, a rare isotope not found in abundance on Earth, exists in greater quantities on the lunar surface. Scientists and companies are actively researching how helium-3 could be mined for potential use in nuclear fusion—possibly turning the Moon into a strategic resource hub.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/ranked-the-countries-with-the-largest-helium-reserves/

US Home Buyers vs Sellers

🔷Hand Signals Of The Chicago Trading Pits

🚨🚨🚨 LPG Tanker Attacked Near Yemen

Author: Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge

---

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a commercial vessel was struck by an "unknown projectile" approximately 210 kilometers (130 miles) east of Aden, Yemen. Security firm Ambrey identified the vessel as the liquefied natural gas tanker MV Falcon.

UKMTO WARNING 036-25 UPDATE 001 - ATTACK - 18 OCT 25

Click here to view the full Advisory⤵️https://t.co/yo0ifPJJjr#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/YIvtfvr5rn

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) October 18, 2025

Shipping analyst Tanker Trackers wrote on X:

The LPG tanker FALCON (9014432), which caught fire today in the Gulf of Aden, was laden with Iranian LPG from Assaluyeh after loading there on 2025-09-25. She was most likely heading to Ras Isa, Yemen; to supply the Houthis. This vessel was detained in January 2025 in Istanbul for 13 deficiencies. The Indian-owned, Cameroon-flagged tanker is 31 years old and 25/26 crew are accounted for. One person is still missing. No known insurer and she isn't blacklisted by any government.

The LPG tanker FALCON (9014432), which caught fire today in the Gulf of Aden, was laden with Iranian LPG from Assaluyeh after loading there on 2025-09-25. She was most likely heading to Ras Isa, Yemen; to supply the Houthis. This vessel was detained in January 2025 in Istanbul… pic.twitter.com/D1kUoUADVi

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) October 18, 2025

The cause of the blast remains unclear, but rumors are already surfacing ...

🚨🇮🇷 Indian tanker "FALCON", carrying Iranian LPG hit by a submarine in the Gulf of Aden.

No one has claimed responsibility. pic.twitter.com/UEkcKKFFjG

— Terror Alarm (@Terror_Alarm) October 18, 2025

*Developing...

⚠️ There is now a 100% chance of an October interest rate cut

🆕 The Week Ahead - Oct 20

Next week, investors will continue to monitor developments in the US–China trade dispute, watching for signs of either escalation or easing tensions. 

The US corporate earnings season will also move into full swing, with major companies such as Tesla, P&G, GE, Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM, AT&T, Verizon, and Intel set to report results. 

In the US, the federal government shutdown is expected to enter its fourth week, though traders will still have the CPI report to digest, alongside S&P Global flash PMIs, and existing home sales. 

In China, attention will focus on a batch of crucial economic releases, including Q3 GDP. 

Elsewhere, flash PMI data will be released for the Eurozone, Germany, the UK, India, Japan, and Australia. 

Other important indicators include Euro Area consumer confidence, Japan's trade and inflation figures, UK inflation, as well as monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Turkey, Indonesia, and South Korea.

🚨⚠️ US Margin Debt Hits $1.13 Trillion : A New All-Time High

🔷 Oil Tanker Rates Soar as U.S. and China Escalate Port Trade War

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

---

• China has imposed steep new port fees on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels — mirroring U.S. tariffs on Chinese ships.
• This new system of levies triggered turmoil in the global tanker market and drove freight rates sharply higher.
• Around 13% of the global crude tanker fleet could be affected, with VLCC rates on the Middle East–China route surging and a two-tier market emerging between China-compliant and non-compliant vessels.

The latest tit-for-tat fees on port callings in the U.S.-China trade spat threaten to create additional vortexes in global oil flows.

Shipowners and charterers are scrambling for clarity after China imposed this week a fee on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels, in retaliation for a similar U.S. move on Chinese ships. China-built ships are exempted from the new Chinese fee, but the impact on oil trade flows would still be significant, at least until owners and charterers find a way to move forward more smoothly in the choppy waters of renewed trade spats.

In these early days of the port fee escalation, the oil tanker market is in chaos as freight rates are rising on expectations of millions of U.S. dollars in additional costs per voyage, and cargoes are being delayed or canceled.

This new chaos creates inefficiencies in the tanker market, drives up freight costs, and adds to already upended flows with sanctions on Chinese crude import terminals and U.S. pressure on Russia's buyers to halt imports of Russian oil.

Tit-for-Tat Port Fees

The latest turmoil in the tanker market began at the end of last week when China announced it would impose, effective October 14, a port fee of $56 (400 Chinese yuan) per ton on U.S.-flagged, built, operated, or owned vessels at Chinese ports. The fee is set to rise each year, to reach as much as $157 (1,120 yuan) per ton by April 2028.

"China's position is consistent. If there's a fight, we'll fight to the end; if there's a talk, the door is open," a spokesperson for the Chinese commerce ministry said on Tuesday, as carried by the BBC.

"The US cannot demand talks while simultaneously imposing new restrictive measures with threats and intimidation. This is not the right way to engage with China," the spokesperson said in a statement.

The Chinese retaliatory fees are equivalent to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) charges imposed on Chinese owned/operated vessels.

And these have just thrown the tanker market into turmoil.

"It seems that, not for the first time, the shipping industry is caught up in the geopolitical jostling between the United States and China," U.S.-based brokers Poten & Partners said on Friday, shortly after China announced its tit-for-tat fees.

This week, shipowners are scrambling to obtain all relevant paperwork, and some are reshuffling corporate structures to lower American ownership to below 25%. A U.S.-held stake below 25% does not trigger the port fees in China.

Even if China-built vessels are exempted from the Chinese fees, 13% of the global crude tanker fleet will be affected by the port fees in China, according to Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta.

Tanker Rates Surge, Again

The result of all the tanker market chaos and uncertainty is soaring freight rates for supertankers to ship crude from the Middle East to China.

The spot rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) – capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil – on the Middle East to China route jumped this week to the highest in nearly three weeks.

The previous surge in supertanker freight rates occurred last month as rising crude supply from OPEC+ and South America and a jump in longer-haul routes hiked freight rates for supertankers to levels last seen nearly three years ago.

VLCC rates on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route hit the threshold of $100,000 per day in September. That was the highest in almost three years and well above the previous 2025 high during the Israel-Iran conflict in June, when fears of disruption to supply or trade flows sent charter rates soaring.

Traders estimate for Reuters that a VLCC linked to the U.S. would now be hit with as much as a $15 million surcharge if it calls at a Chinese port—and no one is paying such massive fees.

"It's not just the dearth of China-compliant ships, it's also uncertainty of what is a China-compliant ship that's driving up freight costs in the near term," Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told Bloomberg.

Due to the port fees and ongoing uncertainties, some ships were idling off China as of Wednesday, shipbrokers and traders tell Bloomberg.

As shipowners and charterers scramble to ease into the new tanker market reality, a two-tier market is emerging, they added. One group of vessel owners is willing to ship cargoes to China, while the other isn't. The former group is charging premiums to transport crude and other goods to China. The latter is seeking workarounds and is considering mid-voyage ship-to-ship transfers to avoid multi-million dollar fees at a Chinese port for a U.S.-linked vessel.

The port fees are the latest in a series of sudden shifts in global crude flows.

This week, supertankers have started to divert from their original destination of the Chinese port of Rizhao, after the U.S. blacklisted around 100 individuals, vessels, and companies—including the Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, which is co-owned by Sinopec, China's top refiner.

Global crude flows are shifting again due to sanctions and trade disputes, and they could alter yet again in the near term if the U.S. succeeds in pressuring India to reduce Russian crude imports.

Drug Cartel Areas In Mexico

📊 World's Largest Merchant Fleets