Saturday, June 21, 2025

US Fed's Daly

Fed's Daly: Things are in balance

  • So far the economy is in a good place and so is policy
  • Concerns about tariff impact on inflation aren't as large as they were when they were first announced
  • Many possibilities on how much of tariffs pass through to customers
  • Fundamentals of economy are moving to where an interest rate cut may be necessary
  • CEOs have cautious optimism on tariffs
  • I look more to the autumn rather than July for a rate cut
  • Unless we see a faltering labor market, autumn looks more appropriate
  • This is a pushback against Waller from earlier but it's not a surprise to the market, which is pricing a 15% chancee of a July cut.

Copper Update

Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff ...