Wednesday, July 9, 2025

US 10-Year Rate Declines

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.35% on Wednesday as markets digested fresh developments on trade policy and assessed their potential impact on future rates and risk premia. 

Minutes from the FOMC's last meeting indicated that most policymakers believe that multiple rate cuts will be warranted this year. 

Still, a portion of members believe that tariffs are inflationary, prompting some projections of no cuts for the year. 

Rate futures continued to reflect bets of a cut in September followed by a cut in December. 

The 10-year note was also supported by strong demand in the latest auction. 

Meanwhile, President Trump broadened fresh tariffs on more countries, in addition to threatening aggressive levies on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 

Bond investors also headed to signals by Trump that the Funds rate should be around 300bps lower, aligning with expectations of a dovish nominee for next year and adding to inflation expectations in the longer term.

Copper Update

Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff ...