Next week, investor attention will remain focused on President Trump's trade war, following the announcement of sweeping tariffs on August 1st.
Meanwhile, the earnings season continues in full swing, with key reports due from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, AMD, Amgen, McDonald's, and Eli Lilly.
In the US, important economic data releases include the ISM Services PMI, trade balance, factory orders, and the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity and labor costs.
Globally, monetary policy decisions are expected from the BoE, the RBI, and Mexico's central bank. Other key data include trade and inflation for China; retail sales and producer prices for the Eurozone; factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures for Germany; trade and PMIs for Australia; trade and employment for Canada; inflation from Mexico, Switzerland and Turkey; and GDP growth figures from Indonesia and the Philippines.
US and Americas
In the US, the earnings season continues, with key reports expected from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, Uber, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Arista Networks, Gilead Sciences, ConocoPhillips and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. On the policy front, markets will closely monitor remarks from some Fed officials for fresh insights into the interest rate outlook—particularly in the wake of the latest US jobs report, which signaled a marked slowdown in labor market momentum. In terms of economic data, the spotlight will be on the ISM Services PMI, expected to show the strongest pace of service sector expansion in three months. Meanwhile, factory orders are forecast to fall by 5.2% in June, reversing an 8.2% surge in May. The trade deficit is also projected to narrow sharply, driven by a steep drop in imports. Additional key releases include the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity and labour costs and consumer credit change. Elsewhere in the Americas, Banco de México is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps. Investors will also keep an eye on Canada's employment report, trade balance, and Ivey PMI, as well as Mexico's inflation, and Brazil's trade figures.
Europe
All eyes in the UK will be on the Bank of England, widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4%, as recent data has shifted the policy focus from inflation concerns to deteriorating growth prospects. Economic releases will be light in the UK, with attention turning to the Halifax House Price Index. In the Eurozone, key data will come from Germany, where factory orders are expected to rebound after previous weakness, though industrial production may still decline while the trade surplus is seen little changed. In France, industrial output is forecast to rise after two months of contraction. Services PMI figures from Italy and Spain are likely to show ongoing expansion. In Switzerland, the procure.ch Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.9 and inflation should remain flat at 0.1%. Meanwhile, in Turkey, inflation is seen rising 2.4% month-over-month, but the annual rate is projected to ease to 34.05%, the lowest since November 2021. Additional releases include Eurozone retail sales and producer prices, Spain's jobless numbers, Italy's industrial output, France's trade balance and unemployment, Switzerland's jobless rate and consumer confidence, and Turkey's trade figures.
Asia and Australia
Market attention will shift to key data out of China. The country's trade surplus is expected to have narrowed slightly to $103.5 billion in July. Inflation data is also due later in the week, alongside the Caixin Services PMI, which is anticipated to show the services sector approaching stagnation. Current account figures will also be in focus. In Japan, investors will analyze minutes from the Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting and key releases include household spending, the leading economic index, Eco Watchers survey results, and the final S&P Global Services PMI. In India, the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. In Australia, attention will be on the trade balance which is expected to show a higher trade surplus, household spending, and industry activity indexes. Across the broader Asia-Pacific region, markets will closely monitor July PMI readings from major economies, as well as inflation data from South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan. GDP growth figures from Indonesia and the Philippines are also scheduled for release.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 8/1/2025 3:00:25 PM
