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US Durable Goods Orders

New orders for manufactured goods in the US plunged by 6.3% from the previous month to $296.3 billion in April of 2025, the sharpest drop since January of 2024, but slightly softer than market expectations of a 7.8% decline. 

The result trimmed the revised 7.6% surge from the previous month, pressured by the start of the blanket 10% reciprocal tariffs in the period and a softer demand for goods following the front-loading of orders in the previous period.

Orders sank for transportation equipment (-17.1% to $98.8 billion), mainly on non-defense aircraft and parts (-51.5% to $18.1 billion) as tariff concerns drove airlines to halt demand for Boeing aircraft, which only received eight orders. 

In the meantime, orders for capital goods fell sharply (-14.6% to $101.4 billion). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

US Employment by Industry - 4/2025

Cattle Price Crisis

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's April report, published on Friday, offers a crisis-level snapshot of the cattle industry and raises further concerns that a near-term recovery remains unlikely. 

This comes as average supermarket prices for ground beef hit new record highs, just as Americans fire up their grills for Memorial Day weekend.

The report showed that the number of cattle fattening on grain at large commercial feedlots declined to the lowest seasonal level since 2020, while cold storage supplies of beef fell to 418 million pounds in April—the lowest for this time of year since 2014, according to Bloomberg.

Readers have been well informed about the USDA's annual Cattle Inventory report, released earlier this year. 

The report showed that the nation's cattle herd in 2024 fell to a 73-year low, totaling around 86.6 million head.

In early May, Brady Stewart, head of Tyson Foods' beef and pork supply chains, told a Barclays analyst during an earnings call that there are some encouraging signs that a cattle herd "rebuild" cycle could be approaching. 

He added, "From a liquidation standpoint, we're really seeing the bottom at this point as well."

By mid-month, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King told investors at the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference in New York that, due to the ongoing cattle crisis, there would be a major push to ramp up chicken production as a more affordable alternative to sky-high beef prices for consumers.

The cattle shortage, plus new developments of U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins shutting down live cattle, horse, and bison imports from southern border land ports, have sent Chicago cattle futures soaring to new heights.

At the supermarket, USDA data shows the average price for a pound of ground beef hit a record high of $5.8/lb in April.

The White House's Rapid Response 47 X account recently reposted a video from Fox News that interviewed a rancher who warned, "It's going to take time to rebuild" the nation's herd.

Plus, the Trump administration will put American farmers at the center of the clean food movement, as revealed in the MAHA Report released last week. 

Most Americans don't realize that the beef industry has been hijacked by "chemical pushers," according to Beef Initiative founder Texas Slim.

The Bloomberg chart below illustrates just that.

The bottom line: America's beef industry is in deep trouble. 

While the Trump administration begins to take steps to kick-start a cattle herd rebuilding cycle, a meaningful recovery could take years. 

In the meantime, consumers should expect higher prices and tighter supplies. 

At the same time, the MAHA movement will begin pushing consumers towards clean, locally sourced food.

Now is the time to support local ranchers and farmers by buying directly from them—putting money in their hands, not in the coffers of globalist multinational food companies that have poisoned the food supply chain, hence the public health crisis detailed in the MAHA Report.

Container Ship Traffic

Container ship traffic from China to the US is falling sharply:

Ships departing China for the United States dropped to the second-lowest level in at least 12 months.

The traffic has been down over 50% since its peak in April.

Expect more layoffs in the US transport industry.