Thursday, August 14, 2025

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Corn Briefing

Corn futures tumbled toward $3.7 per bushel in August, marking their lowest levels since late 2020, as a surge in US and global supply continues to overwhelm demand. 

The latest USDA outlook forecasts a record US corn harvest of 16.7 billion bushels, driven by the second-largest planted area ever at 97.2 million acres and a record-breaking national yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, surpassing expectations by roughly 800 million bushels. 

This stronger-than-expected production is pushing US ending stocks to their highest level since 2018–19. Outside the US, Brazil's early safrinha corn harvest is flooding the market, further depressing domestic prices and undermining US export competitiveness. 

Although global export volumes have increased, they are failing to keep pace with the rapid production growth. 

Additionally, the USDA projects a 24% rise in US corn ending stocks for 2025–26, while inflation-adjusted prices are set to plunge to their lowest July levels since 2006.

Corn Yield : USDA Projection

US Inflation Rate - YoY

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. 

Price pressures increased for used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8% in June), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%) while inflation steadied for food (2.9% vs 2.9%). 

On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) and energy cost declined more (-1.6% vs -0.8%). Prices for gasoline (-9.5% vs -8.3%) and fuel oil (-2.9% vs -4.7%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (13.8% vs 14.2%).On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, just below June's 0.3% gain which was the strongest since January and matching expectations. 

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. 

The monthly core CPI went up 0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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