The Week Ahead - June 16

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will remain in focus next week following Israel's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. 

Markets will also be closely watching any progress on trade negotiations between the US and its key partners. 

Meanwhile, attention shifts to the G7 Summit in Canada, where leaders of the world's largest economies will meet to discuss major global challenges. 

It's also a busy week for monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged. 

Decisions are also due from central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. 

On the data front, key releases include US retail sales and industrial production, UK inflation, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index, China's industrial production and retail sales, and Japan's trade data.

UPDATE : US Dollar

The dollar index extended its decline on Thursday, falling below 97.8 to reach its lowest level since 2022, as renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. 

President Trump announced plans to send formal letters to major trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariff measures aimed at pressuring countries into new trade agreements. 

This comes as the current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire next month. 

Adding to market unease, geopolitical tensions intensified after Iran threatened to strike US bases if nuclear talks collapse. 

Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data added to the downward pressure on the greenback. 

The weaker inflation prints bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver two interest rate cuts this year. 

The dollar posted its steepest losses against the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen.

US Tariff Receipts Collected

$22.172 Billion USD

US Inflation Rate

The annual inflation rate in the US rose for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May 2025 from April's 2.3%, the lowest since 2021, but came in below expectations of 2.5%. 

Prices rose more for food (2.9% vs 2.8% in April), transportation services (2.8% vs 2.5%), used cars and trucks (1.8% vs 1.5%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.3%). 

On the other hand, inflation fell slightly for shelter (3.9% vs 4%). 

Meanwhile, energy cost declined 3.5%, following a 3.7% fall in April. 

Prices for gasoline (-12% vs -11.8%) and fuel oil (-8.6% vs -9.6%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (15.3% vs 15.7%).

On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in the previous month and forecasts of 0.2%. 

In addition, annual core inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.8%, holding at 2021-lows, while expectations were pointing to a rise to 2.9%. 

The monthly core CPI also edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in April and expectations of 0.3%. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Update : July WTI Crude Oil CLN25

> gap up on ETH open

> US embassy evacuating non-essential personnel on elevated tensions with Iran

Update : August Gold GCQ25

> still an inside week

> opened ETH in a congestion zone

Main Bank Instruments for Commodity Traders

Crude Oil to Petrol Process

Update: August Gold GCQ25

AUGUST GOLD GCQ25 : nothing significant yet. So far it has an Inside Week, as it has yet to break beyond last week's range.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) is inflation day. Maybe that will be the catalyst.

Update: July WTI Crude Oil

WTI CRUDE OIL CLN25 : sold down & settled near last week's high & into a significant $65 options strike.

Seasonal Price Patterns of December Corn

Gold's Share of Global Reserves

Gold's share of global reserves reached 23% in Q2 2025, the highest level in 30 years.

Over the last 6 years, the percentage has DOUBLED.

At the same time, the US Dollar's share of international reserves has declined 10 percentage points, to 44%, the lowest since 1993.

By comparison, the Euro's share has decreased 2 percentage points, to 16%, the lowest in 22 years.

Gold is quickly replacing fiat currencies as a reserve currency.

Top 1% of US Earners

US $1.8 Trillion Deficit

Per-Person Revenue Collected By The Federal Government

Existing Home Sales

US existing home sales dropped -3.1% year-over-year to an annualized 4.0 million in April, the lowest for any April since 2009.

Month-over-month, home sales fell-0.5%, well below expectations of a +2.0% increase.

The decline was driven by the West and Northeast regions.

Sales in the South were flat, while in the Midwest improved slightly.

Meanwhile, existing home inventory rose +21%, to 1.45 million, the most for any April since 2020, per ZeroHedge.

Despite that, the median sales price increased +1.8% year-over-year to $414,000, a record for the month of April.

Homebuyer demand is weak and prices are still rising.

Housing Buying Conditions