Saturday, May 3, 2025

US Economy Update

Non Farm Payrolls

The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April 2025, a slowdown from the downwardly revised 185,000 in March, but significantly surpassing market expectations of 130,000. This figure aligns closely with the average monthly gain of 152,000 over the past 12 months, despite growing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Job growth was primarily seen in sectors such as health care (+51,000), transportation and warehousing (+29,000), financial activities (+14,000), and social assistance (+8,000), while federal government employment experienced a decline (-9,000). source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Unemployment Rate

The US unemployment rate was at 4.2% in April 2025, the same as in March and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 82,000 to 7.165 million, while employment grew by 436,000 to reach 163.944 million. The labor force participation rate also edged up to 62.6% from 62.5%, and the employment-population ratio to 60% from 59.9%. Additionally, the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes those marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons, decreased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in the previous month. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Factory Orders

New order for US manufactured goods surged by 4.3% from the previous month to $618.8 billion in March of 2025, accelerating from the downwardly revise 0.5% increase from the previous month and loosely in line with market expectations of a 4.5% jump. It was the sharpest increase since July of last year as clients expedited orders of goods before the aggressive tariffs by the White House kicked in during April and forced factories to raise prices. Orders surged in durable goods industries (9.2% to $315.7 billion), carried by transportation equipment (27.1% to $124.6 billion), while softer increases were noted in primary metals (1.1% to $27.9 billion), fabricated metal products (0.1% to $37 billion) and machinery (0.1% to $37.8 billion). On the other hand, orders fell for computers and electronic products (-1.3% to $25.4 billion). source: U.S. Census Bureau


Friday, May 2, 2025

US Job Growth Exceeds Expectations

The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April 2025, a slowdown from the downwardly revised 185,000 in March, but significantly surpassing market expectations of 130,000.

This figure aligns closely with the average monthly gain of 152,000 over the past 12 months, despite growing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. 

Job growth was primarily seen in sectors such as health care (+51,000), transportation and warehousing (+29,000), financial activities (+14,000), and social assistance (+8,000), while federal government employment experienced a decline (-9,000). 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

-- 

Monday, April 28, 2025

US Unsold Homes

The number of unsold completed single-family homes jumped 31,000 year-over-year in March, to 119,000, the highest since July 2009.

Unsold completed homes for sale have TRIPLED over the last 3 years.

As a share of housing starts, unsold homes jumped to ~12%, the highest since 2012.

By comparison, at the height of the 2008 Financial Crisis, this percentage was as high as 45%.

This all comes as housing demand continues to weaken due to elevated mortgage rates and near-record home prices.


US Bank Unrealized Losses

U.S. Banks are currently facing $482 Billion in unrealized losses, an increase of 33% from the prior quarter.


Sunday, April 27, 2025

Central Banks Are Acquiring Gold

World central banks are diversifying their reserves:

  • Foreign holdings of Treasuries as % of US government debt have fallen to ~23%, the lowest in 22 years.
  • The percentage is down ~11 percentage points over the last 9 years.
  • At the same time, gold holdings as a % of global international reserves have hit ~18%, the highest in 26 years.
  • The share has risen ~8 percentage points since 2015.
  • China has been one of the biggest buyers of gold over the last few years.
  • Since the beginning of 2023, China's gold reserves as a % of total foreign reserves have doubled to 7.1%.

-- 

Friday, April 25, 2025

Asset Bubbles

 

US Consumer Sentiment


Gold Market Analysis

  • Large funds have been reducing their Net Long positions in Gold since Feb 2025. 
  • Managed Money has been reducing their Longs while increasing their Shorts, with a slight increase in Spreads.
  • The Gold ETF $GLD experienced a huge outflow of $1.3 Billion on Tuesday, the largest outflow in 14 years!















  • Wednesday, October 16, 2024

    Strategy Thought

    Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. 

    Sun Tzu - War Strategist

    Tuesday, September 17, 2024

    BP to sell non-controlling stake in TAP gas link unit to Apollo

    BP to sell non-controlling stake in TAP gas link unit to Apollo

    Asia becomes cheapest blue ammonia location in August

    Asia becomes cheapest blue ammonia location in August

    European duty-paid aluminum premiums slip on unclear supply-demand scenario

    European duty-paid aluminum premiums slip on unclear supply-demand scenario

    US beef market debates effect of potential International Longshoremen's Association strike

    US beef market debates effect of potential International Longshoremen's Association strike

    Storm Disrupts Operations at Shanghai Port: Reports

    Storm Disrupts Operations at Shanghai Port: Reports

    Oil Extends Gains As Outages Persist In Gulf Of Mexico

    Oil Extends Gains As Outages Persist In Gulf Of Mexico

    Dollar Moves Higher and Gold Falls on Signs of US Economic Strength

    Dollar Moves Higher and Gold Falls on Signs of US Economic Strength

    CLX WTI Crude Oil Commentary 9/17/24

    CLX WTI Crude Oil Commentary 9/17/24

    Copper Update

    Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff ...