Update: July WTI Crude Oil

WTI CRUDE OIL CLN25 : sold down & settled near last week's high & into a significant $65 options strike.

Seasonal Price Patterns of December Corn

Gold's Share of Global Reserves

Gold's share of global reserves reached 23% in Q2 2025, the highest level in 30 years.

Over the last 6 years, the percentage has DOUBLED.

At the same time, the US Dollar's share of international reserves has declined 10 percentage points, to 44%, the lowest since 1993.

By comparison, the Euro's share has decreased 2 percentage points, to 16%, the lowest in 22 years.

Gold is quickly replacing fiat currencies as a reserve currency.

Top 1% of US Earners

US $1.8 Trillion Deficit

Per-Person Revenue Collected By The Federal Government

Existing Home Sales

US existing home sales dropped -3.1% year-over-year to an annualized 4.0 million in April, the lowest for any April since 2009.

Month-over-month, home sales fell-0.5%, well below expectations of a +2.0% increase.

The decline was driven by the West and Northeast regions.

Sales in the South were flat, while in the Midwest improved slightly.

Meanwhile, existing home inventory rose +21%, to 1.45 million, the most for any April since 2020, per ZeroHedge.

Despite that, the median sales price increased +1.8% year-over-year to $414,000, a record for the month of April.

Homebuyer demand is weak and prices are still rising.

Housing Buying Conditions

Auto Loan Delinquency Rate

The US Auto Loan Delinquency Rate is at its highest level in 14 years

Bond Market Buyback

The US Treasury is supporting the Bond Market as never before:

The Treasury purchased $10 billion of its debt on Tuesday, the most since the buyback operation was initiated.

Over the last months, the Treasury Buybacks have trended upward, as indicated by the ZeroHedge chart.

HELOCs Update

Withdrawals from home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) during the first three months of 2025 reached their highest first-quarter level in 17 years, according ICE Mortgage Technology.

US Home Market Update

US Labor Market Distributions

World's Largest Importers

Average Home Buyer Age : 56

The World's 15 Largest Defense Budgets

US Durable Goods Orders

New orders for manufactured goods in the US plunged by 6.3% from the previous month to $296.3 billion in April of 2025, the sharpest drop since January of 2024, but slightly softer than market expectations of a 7.8% decline. 

The result trimmed the revised 7.6% surge from the previous month, pressured by the start of the blanket 10% reciprocal tariffs in the period and a softer demand for goods following the front-loading of orders in the previous period.

Orders sank for transportation equipment (-17.1% to $98.8 billion), mainly on non-defense aircraft and parts (-51.5% to $18.1 billion) as tariff concerns drove airlines to halt demand for Boeing aircraft, which only received eight orders. 

In the meantime, orders for capital goods fell sharply (-14.6% to $101.4 billion). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

US Employment by Industry - 4/2025

Cattle Price Crisis

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's April report, published on Friday, offers a crisis-level snapshot of the cattle industry and raises further concerns that a near-term recovery remains unlikely. 

This comes as average supermarket prices for ground beef hit new record highs, just as Americans fire up their grills for Memorial Day weekend.

The report showed that the number of cattle fattening on grain at large commercial feedlots declined to the lowest seasonal level since 2020, while cold storage supplies of beef fell to 418 million pounds in April—the lowest for this time of year since 2014, according to Bloomberg.

Readers have been well informed about the USDA's annual Cattle Inventory report, released earlier this year. 

The report showed that the nation's cattle herd in 2024 fell to a 73-year low, totaling around 86.6 million head.

In early May, Brady Stewart, head of Tyson Foods' beef and pork supply chains, told a Barclays analyst during an earnings call that there are some encouraging signs that a cattle herd "rebuild" cycle could be approaching. 

He added, "From a liquidation standpoint, we're really seeing the bottom at this point as well."

By mid-month, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King told investors at the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference in New York that, due to the ongoing cattle crisis, there would be a major push to ramp up chicken production as a more affordable alternative to sky-high beef prices for consumers.

The cattle shortage, plus new developments of U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins shutting down live cattle, horse, and bison imports from southern border land ports, have sent Chicago cattle futures soaring to new heights.

At the supermarket, USDA data shows the average price for a pound of ground beef hit a record high of $5.8/lb in April.

The White House's Rapid Response 47 X account recently reposted a video from Fox News that interviewed a rancher who warned, "It's going to take time to rebuild" the nation's herd.

Plus, the Trump administration will put American farmers at the center of the clean food movement, as revealed in the MAHA Report released last week. 

Most Americans don't realize that the beef industry has been hijacked by "chemical pushers," according to Beef Initiative founder Texas Slim.

The Bloomberg chart below illustrates just that.

The bottom line: America's beef industry is in deep trouble. 

While the Trump administration begins to take steps to kick-start a cattle herd rebuilding cycle, a meaningful recovery could take years. 

In the meantime, consumers should expect higher prices and tighter supplies. 

At the same time, the MAHA movement will begin pushing consumers towards clean, locally sourced food.

Now is the time to support local ranchers and farmers by buying directly from them—putting money in their hands, not in the coffers of globalist multinational food companies that have poisoned the food supply chain, hence the public health crisis detailed in the MAHA Report.

Container Ship Traffic

Container ship traffic from China to the US is falling sharply:

Ships departing China for the United States dropped to the second-lowest level in at least 12 months.

The traffic has been down over 50% since its peak in April.

Expect more layoffs in the US transport industry.

Gold Outflow

Gold experienced a weekly outflow of $2.9 Billion, the largest in more than a decade and the third largest in history.

Beef Prices Hit Historic High

US New Home Sales

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States surged by 10.9% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 743,000 units, extending the downwardly revised 2.6% increase in the previous session and sharply higher than market expectations of a softer rate of 692,000 homes sold. 

It was the sharpest increase since August of 2022, lifting home sales to their highest since February 2022, likely helped by builder incentives aimed at alleviating affordability challenges that have a firm grip on the resale market.

This was enough to offset the increase in mortgage rates during the month. 

Sales rose the most in the South (11.7% to 478,000) and the Midwest (35.5% to 84,000). 

In turn, sales dropped sharply in the Northeast (-14.8% to 23,000). 

The median home price rose by 0.8% to $407,200. 

In turn, housing inventory was at 504,000 units, equivalent to 8.1 months of supply at the latest sales rate. 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

Iran Missile Update

💠 The US found strategic materials used in Iran missile programs, and
found Iran's construction sector to be controlled by IRGC.

Fed Summary Update

💠 Fed's Bostic: More businesses say they can no longer delay tariff price hikes or job cuts

💠 Fed's Hammack: sentiment data about the economy has been concerning

💠 Fed's Musalem: Monetary policy currently is well positioned

China Gold Imports Surge

• China imported the most gold in nearly a year last month, as strong investor demand and central bank policy shifts pushed bullion inflows sharply higher despite record prices.
• According to customs data released Tuesday, gold imports jumped 73% month-on-month to 127.5 metric tons in April — the highest level since May 2024.
• Market participants attribute the spike in imports to the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which is understood to have allocated fresh import quotas to select commercial banks in April. The central bank, which maintains tight control over physical bullion flows, typically issues licenses only to designated institutions.

Market Brief

💠 Fed's Bostic: Rates in the US are mildly restrictive

💠 Fed's Kashkari: There is big uncertainty now in the economy

💠 Fed's Williams: Uncertainty has led the Fed to keep interest rates steady so far

💠 The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that growing U.S. financial volatility could spark a sudden scramble for dollars

SP500 Futures: Weekly Prep

🔵 Weekly SP500 Futures Preparation

> Avg Daily Range: ~111/day

> Expected range this week: 5807.75-6085.75

> Volatility: 18

> Daily Goal: ~8

Gold: Weekly Prep

🔵 Weekly Gold Preparation

> Avg Daily Range: ~$87/day

> Expected range this week: $3115.90-$3303.40

> Volatility: 25

> Daily Goal: ~$4

Crude Oil: Weekly Prep

🔵 Weekly Crude Oil Preparation

> Avg Daily Range: ~$2/day

> This week expected range: $58.70-$65.25

> Volatility: 42

> Daily Goal: ~$0.40