US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) in the US fell by 9bps to 6.84% in the week ended June 13th, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

This marks the lowest level in six weeks, tracking a decline in Treasury yields as the conflict between Israel and Iran triggered a flight to safety. 

"Mortgage rates decreased last week, driven by financial market volatility caused by current geopolitical conflict and ongoing tariff uncertainties. 

Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers' purchase decisions", said Joel Kan, MBA's vice president. 

Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $806,500) decreased to 6.81% from 6.93%. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.57% from 6.6%. 

source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

FOMC Dot Plot

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as anticipated, at 4.5% today.

Here is the updated FOMC dot plot.

US Fed Funds Interest Rate

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting in June 2025, in line with expectations, as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of President Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. 

Officials also noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. 

Despite this, the Fed continues to project two rate cuts later this year, though it anticipates only one quarter-percentage-point in 2026 and 2027. 

In its updated projections, the Fed downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% (vs 1.7% in March) and for 2026 to 1.6% (vs 1.8%), while leaving the 2027 estimate unchanged at 1.8%. 

The unemployment rate is now expected at 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026 (vs 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively). 

As for inflation, the Fed sees the PCE rate at 3.0% in 2025 (vs 2.7%), easing to 2.4% in 2026 (vs 2.2%), and 2.1% in 2027 (vs 2.0%). 

source: Federal Reserve

US Retail Sales

Retail sales in the US declined 0.9% month-over-month in May 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in April and worse than market forecast of a 0.7% fall. 

It is the biggest decrease in four months, as consumers pulled back ahead of expected tariffs. 

Sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers recorded the largest decline (-3.5%), followed by building material & garden equipment suppliers (-2.7%) and gasoline stations (-2%). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

WTI Crude Oil Update

WTI crude oil futures hovered near $75 per barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since January, as escalating conflict in the Middle East fueled fears of supply disruptions. 

President Trump met with his national security team after warning on social media of a possible strike on Iran's leader and demanding the country's unconditional surrender. 

Simultaneously, Israel's military confirmed it had launched strikes near Tehran and detected missile launches from Iran, with interception efforts underway. 

Nevertheless, Iran's crude-exporting infrastructure has been spared, with most of the fallout limited to shipping. 

The oil market has also remained relatively stable, supported by ample global supply, including rising OPEC+ output and record-high US production. 

Meanwhile, US industry data showed crude inventories dropped by over 10 million barrels last week, potentially marking the largest draw since last summer if confirmed by official figures.

Japan Exports

Japan's exports fell 1.7% yoy to a four-month low of JPY 8,134.99 billion in May 2025, reversing a 2.0% gain in April and marking the first decline since last September. amid the impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs. 

Still, the drop was milder than the market consensus of a 3.8% fall. 

Shipments to the U.S. slumped 11.1%, the second straight monthly drop, due to weaker demand for cars, auto parts, and chip-making machinery. 

Meantime, exports to China shrank 8.8%. 

In contrast, sales rose to the EU (4.9%), Russia (5.2%), and ASEAN countries (0.1%). 

PM Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Trump agreed to extend trade talks after failing to reach a breakthrough recently. 

Tokyo continues to seek an exemption from the 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50% in early June. 

A 24% reciprocal tariff is set to take effect on July 9 unless a deal is reached, posing a risk to Japan's fragile recovery, which is already struggling due to weak private consumption. 

source: Ministry of Finance, Japan

US & China GDP

Auto Insurance Rates

Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 84% over the past 5 years. That's the biggest 5-year spike on record.

Update : US Dollar

US dollar as a % of global reserve has fallen from 67% to 57% in just the last decade.

China's Gold Holdings

China's central bank increased its gold holdings by 2 tonnes in April, posting their 6th consecutive monthly purchase.

This brings China's gold reserves to a record 2,295 tonnes, or 6.8% of total reserve assets.

According to Goldman Sachs, China actually purchased 27 tonnes of gold in April, or 13 times more than officially reported.

As a result, central bank and other institutional gold demand, excluding the US, hit 68 tonnes.

Year-to-date, central bank demand has reached an average of 88 tonnes per month.

World central banks can't get enough gold.

Update : August WTI Crude Oil

Update : August Gold

The Week Ahead - June 16

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will remain in focus next week following Israel's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. 

Markets will also be closely watching any progress on trade negotiations between the US and its key partners. 

Meanwhile, attention shifts to the G7 Summit in Canada, where leaders of the world's largest economies will meet to discuss major global challenges. 

It's also a busy week for monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged. 

Decisions are also due from central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. 

On the data front, key releases include US retail sales and industrial production, UK inflation, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index, China's industrial production and retail sales, and Japan's trade data.

UPDATE : US Dollar

The dollar index extended its decline on Thursday, falling below 97.8 to reach its lowest level since 2022, as renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. 

President Trump announced plans to send formal letters to major trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariff measures aimed at pressuring countries into new trade agreements. 

This comes as the current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire next month. 

Adding to market unease, geopolitical tensions intensified after Iran threatened to strike US bases if nuclear talks collapse. 

Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data added to the downward pressure on the greenback. 

The weaker inflation prints bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver two interest rate cuts this year. 

The dollar posted its steepest losses against the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen.

US Tariff Receipts Collected

$22.172 Billion USD

US Inflation Rate

The annual inflation rate in the US rose for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May 2025 from April's 2.3%, the lowest since 2021, but came in below expectations of 2.5%. 

Prices rose more for food (2.9% vs 2.8% in April), transportation services (2.8% vs 2.5%), used cars and trucks (1.8% vs 1.5%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.3%). 

On the other hand, inflation fell slightly for shelter (3.9% vs 4%). 

Meanwhile, energy cost declined 3.5%, following a 3.7% fall in April. 

Prices for gasoline (-12% vs -11.8%) and fuel oil (-8.6% vs -9.6%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (15.3% vs 15.7%).

On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in the previous month and forecasts of 0.2%. 

In addition, annual core inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.8%, holding at 2021-lows, while expectations were pointing to a rise to 2.9%. 

The monthly core CPI also edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in April and expectations of 0.3%. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Update : July WTI Crude Oil CLN25

> gap up on ETH open

> US embassy evacuating non-essential personnel on elevated tensions with Iran

Update : August Gold GCQ25

> still an inside week

> opened ETH in a congestion zone

Main Bank Instruments for Commodity Traders

Crude Oil to Petrol Process

Update: August Gold GCQ25

AUGUST GOLD GCQ25 : nothing significant yet. So far it has an Inside Week, as it has yet to break beyond last week's range.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) is inflation day. Maybe that will be the catalyst.

Update: July WTI Crude Oil

WTI CRUDE OIL CLN25 : sold down & settled near last week's high & into a significant $65 options strike.

Seasonal Price Patterns of December Corn

Gold's Share of Global Reserves

Gold's share of global reserves reached 23% in Q2 2025, the highest level in 30 years.

Over the last 6 years, the percentage has DOUBLED.

At the same time, the US Dollar's share of international reserves has declined 10 percentage points, to 44%, the lowest since 1993.

By comparison, the Euro's share has decreased 2 percentage points, to 16%, the lowest in 22 years.

Gold is quickly replacing fiat currencies as a reserve currency.

Top 1% of US Earners

US $1.8 Trillion Deficit

Per-Person Revenue Collected By The Federal Government

Existing Home Sales

US existing home sales dropped -3.1% year-over-year to an annualized 4.0 million in April, the lowest for any April since 2009.

Month-over-month, home sales fell-0.5%, well below expectations of a +2.0% increase.

The decline was driven by the West and Northeast regions.

Sales in the South were flat, while in the Midwest improved slightly.

Meanwhile, existing home inventory rose +21%, to 1.45 million, the most for any April since 2020, per ZeroHedge.

Despite that, the median sales price increased +1.8% year-over-year to $414,000, a record for the month of April.

Homebuyer demand is weak and prices are still rising.

Housing Buying Conditions

Auto Loan Delinquency Rate

The US Auto Loan Delinquency Rate is at its highest level in 14 years