Thursday, August 21, 2025
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
Large Speculator Positioning : Russell 2000
Russell 2000 Small Cap Futures
:::: CFTC COT Positioning : Large Speculators
>>> Net Short
>>> Approaching Extreme Level ‼️
IN PLAY : Sept New Zealand Dollar 6NU25
The New Zealand dollar fell more than 1% to $0.582 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since mid-April after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates as expected and signaled scope for further easing.
The central bank slashed its official cash rate by 25bps to a three-year low of 3%, bringing its easing cycle so far to a whopping 250bps, as policymakers moved to revive a struggling economy and shield it against risks from US tariff policy.
The RBNZ also lowered its projected floor for the cash rate to 2.55%, from 2.85% forecast in May.
After the announcement, markets quickly price two more rate cuts by year-end, assigning a 50% chance of a move in October and 100% for November.
The kiwi also faced additional pressure from a rising US dollar, as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week for more clues on US rate trajectory.
Elsewhere, NZ's two-year swap rates dropped to 2.91%, the lowest since early 2022.
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Nvidia-Led Tech Decline Breaks Summer Calm in Equities
Wall Street's summer calm cracked as a selloff in big tech led to major equity gauges going lower, highlighting the US market's narrow reliance on a handful of growth giants.
The Nasdaq 100 declined 1.4% - its second-worst fall since April's tariff surprise – led by a rout in Nvidia.
That pressure overwhelmed gains in over 350 shares in the S&P 500, revealing the fragility of an index supported by megacaps. Home Depot's earnings raised big-box retailers, while Intel jumped as the US is ironing out details of a deal to take a 10% stake in the chipmaker.
Treasuries climbed ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with traders firming up bets on a September cut.
10-Yr yields declined 3 BPS to 4.30%.
S&P Global Ratings said revenues from tariffs will help soften the blow to the US's fiscal health from tax cuts, allowing it to preserve its credit grade.
The crypto world joined a decline in risky assets.
Traders are waiting to see if Fed's Powell confirms the market pricing - or pushes back with a reminder that new data arriving before the next meeting could alter the picture.
They're also looking for hints about the longer-run trajectory of Fed cuts into next year.
Source : Financial Juice
Lithium Update
Lithium carbonate prices surged further toward CNY 85,000 per tonne in August, erasing this year's slump to the highest in one year as lower output from key mines countered oversupply worries.
The Chinese government pledged capacity cuts to major industries that have suffered from deflationary pledges in recent years, driving investors to bet on an outlook of lower lithium supply out of the world's top refined lithium producer.
Expectations of an overhaul to mining policy gained traction after the world's top battery producer, CATL, suspended activity in its Jianxiawo mine after failing to extend a key mining permit.
The mine is responsible for around 5% of global supply.
Last year, global output was 35% higher on strong production from China, Indonesia, and the DR Congo.
Output from main producers was still set to grow this year as miners refrain from voluntarily close operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers.
Friday, August 15, 2025
🌩️🌀 HURRICANE WATCH 🌀⛈️ : Erin
Watch Hurricane Erin as it closes in on the USA, potentially the Gulf of America.
Thursday, August 14, 2025
US 15-Year Mortgage Rate : Update
15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 5.71 percent in August 14 from 5.75 percent in the previous week.
15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 5.25 percent from 1991 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 8.89 percent in December of 1994 and a record low of 2.10 percent in July of 2021.
source: Freddie Mac
Wednesday, August 13, 2025
Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Corn Briefing
Corn futures tumbled toward $3.7 per bushel in August, marking their lowest levels since late 2020, as a surge in US and global supply continues to overwhelm demand.
The latest USDA outlook forecasts a record US corn harvest of 16.7 billion bushels, driven by the second-largest planted area ever at 97.2 million acres and a record-breaking national yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, surpassing expectations by roughly 800 million bushels.
This stronger-than-expected production is pushing US ending stocks to their highest level since 2018–19. Outside the US, Brazil's early safrinha corn harvest is flooding the market, further depressing domestic prices and undermining US export competitiveness.
Although global export volumes have increased, they are failing to keep pace with the rapid production growth.
Additionally, the USDA projects a 24% rise in US corn ending stocks for 2025–26, while inflation-adjusted prices are set to plunge to their lowest July levels since 2006.
US Inflation Rate - YoY
The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%.
Price pressures increased for used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8% in June), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%) while inflation steadied for food (2.9% vs 2.9%).
On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) and energy cost declined more (-1.6% vs -0.8%). Prices for gasoline (-9.5% vs -8.3%) and fuel oil (-2.9% vs -4.7%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (13.8% vs 14.2%).On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, just below June's 0.3% gain which was the strongest since January and matching expectations.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%.
The monthly core CPI went up 0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously.
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, August 8, 2025
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Equities Halt Rally
Wall Street ended a rally that drove equities to the edge of a record amid worries about an overheated market.
Treasuries lost steam as a weak sale of 30-year bonds signalled fading desire for US debt after a recent surge.
Treasuries lost steam as a weak sale of 30-year bonds signalled fading desire for US debt after a recent surge.
After an almost 30% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 closed little changed.
A closely observed gauge of chipmakers rose, but Intel declined 3% as Trump called on its chief to resign, citing conflicts of interest.
Eli Lilly slipped 14% after disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill.
Apple continued a two-day surge to about 8.5%.
A closely observed gauge of chipmakers rose, but Intel declined 3% as Trump called on its chief to resign, citing conflicts of interest.
Eli Lilly slipped 14% after disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill.
Apple continued a two-day surge to about 8.5%.
Thursday's $25 bln Treasury sale followed weak results for 3- and 10-Yr debt auctions this week.
Long-end gains slowed, leaving 30-Yr yields little changed at 4.83%.
The yield on 10-yr bonds climbed two basis points to 4.25%.
The dollar barely moved.
Long-end gains slowed, leaving 30-Yr yields little changed at 4.83%.
The yield on 10-yr bonds climbed two basis points to 4.25%.
The dollar barely moved.
Whether or not the blistering rally in US stocks is about to cool, some large businesses have cautioned clients to prepare for a near-term pullback amid sky-high valuations.
Added to bulls' worries is seasonality. August and September have historically been the two worst months for the S&P 500.
Earlier gains in equities were pushed by hopes of a de-escalation of geopolitical risks after Russia said Putin and Trump are finalising details for a meeting.
Stocks were also bolstered by Trump's vow to exempt businesses that move production to the USA after stating plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports.
Added to bulls' worries is seasonality. August and September have historically been the two worst months for the S&P 500.
Earlier gains in equities were pushed by hopes of a de-escalation of geopolitical risks after Russia said Putin and Trump are finalising details for a meeting.
Stocks were also bolstered by Trump's vow to exempt businesses that move production to the USA after stating plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports.
source : FinancialJuice
Tuesday, August 5, 2025
Fund Market Exposure
Hedge Funds just reduced gross exposure at the fastest pace in more than 5 years : Goldman Sachs
US Housing Market
Jerome Powell needs to drop rates huge now!
Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.
US Trade Gap Falls To Lowest Level Since 2023
The US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June 2025, the lowest since September 2023, compared to a revised $71.7 billion gap in May and forecasts of a $61.6 billion shortfall.
Imports declined 3.7% to $337.5 billion, the lowest since March 2024 led by pharmaceutical preparations, passenger cars, crude oil and nuclear fuel materials.
Exports went down 0.5% to $277.3 billion, the lowest since January, mainly due to finished metal shapes, nonmonetary gold and computer accessories.
The largest trade deficit was with Mexico, though it narrowed slightly to $16.3 billion from $17.1 billion.
The deficit with China declined to $9.4 billion and the gap with the EU shrank significantly to $9.5 billion from $22.5 billion.
On the other hand, trade deficits widened with Vietnam ($16.2 billion vs. $15 billion), Taiwan ($12.9 billion vs. $11.5 billion), and India ($5.3 billion vs. $5.1 billion).
The trade balance with Switzerland switched to slight deficit of less than $0.1 billion.
source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Sunday, August 3, 2025
Copper Update
Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff exemption.
President Donald Trump announced that the newly imposed copper tariffs would apply only to semi-finished products such as wires and pipes, sparing key inputs like ore, cathodes, and concentrates, the most commonly imported forms of copper.
Traders had previously rushed shipments into the US to frontload expected tariffs, inflating domestic premiums.
With the exemption now in place, those premiums are unwinding quickly.
Analysts also warned the US may face a glut of copper, with excess inventory potentially being re-exported, adding further pressure to global prices.
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The US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June 2025, the lowest since September 2023, compared to a revised $71.7 billion gap in May...
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Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff ...
