Options Plays This Week : Gold & CAD

🚨 BREAKING

Maduro mobilizes Venezuela's Special Forces with Chinese weapons as a show of force, following increased U.S. Navy presence in the Caribbean.

Tensions rise in the region amid growing military posturing.

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Fed Sees Conditions For A Rate Cut

The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, as expected, but two governors dissented in favor of a cut—the first such dual dissent since 1993.

Policymakers observed that, while fluctuations in net exports continue to influence the data, recent indicators point to a moderation in economic activity in H1—contrasting with earlier assessments that growth was proceeding 'at a solid pace'.

The Fed also said that the unemployment rate remains low while inflation remains somewhat elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists.

The Fed reinforced that additional adjustments to the interest rate will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

The central bank maintained a wait-and-see approach amid rising concerns that the ongoing trade war could undermine progress toward the 2% inflation target.

source: Federal Reserve

US Enriched Uranium Data

US Tariff Data Update

IN PLAY : Dec Soybean Oil ZLZ25

Gold Is Stored, Not Consumed

Gold Futures : Update

Russell 2000 Futures : Update

Large Speculator Positioning : Russell 2000

Russell 2000 Small Cap Futures

:::: CFTC COT Positioning : Large Speculators

>>> Net Short

>>> Approaching Extreme Level ‼️

IN PLAY : Sept New Zealand Dollar 6NU25

The New Zealand dollar fell more than 1% to $0.582 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since mid-April after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates as expected and signaled scope for further easing. 

The central bank slashed its official cash rate by 25bps to a three-year low of 3%, bringing its easing cycle so far to a whopping 250bps, as policymakers moved to revive a struggling economy and shield it against risks from US tariff policy. 

The RBNZ also lowered its projected floor for the cash rate to 2.55%, from 2.85% forecast in May. 

After the announcement, markets quickly price two more rate cuts by year-end, assigning a 50% chance of a move in October and 100% for November. 

The kiwi also faced additional pressure from a rising US dollar, as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week for more clues on US rate trajectory. 

Elsewhere, NZ's two-year swap rates dropped to 2.91%, the lowest since early 2022.

Bitcoin Holdings By Company

Nvidia-Led Tech Decline Breaks Summer Calm in Equities

Wall Street's summer calm cracked as a selloff in big tech led to major equity gauges going lower, highlighting the US market's narrow reliance on a handful of growth giants.

The Nasdaq 100 declined 1.4% - its second-worst fall since April's tariff surprise – led by a rout in Nvidia. 

That pressure overwhelmed gains in over 350 shares in the S&P 500, revealing the fragility of an index supported by megacaps. Home Depot's earnings raised big-box retailers, while Intel jumped as the US is ironing out details of a deal to take a 10% stake in the chipmaker.

Treasuries climbed ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with traders firming up bets on a September cut. 

10-Yr yields declined 3 BPS to 4.30%. 

S&P Global Ratings said revenues from tariffs will help soften the blow to the US's fiscal health from tax cuts, allowing it to preserve its credit grade. 

The crypto world joined a decline in risky assets.

Traders are waiting to see if Fed's Powell confirms the market pricing - or pushes back with a reminder that new data arriving before the next meeting could alter the picture. 

They're also looking for hints about the longer-run trajectory of Fed cuts into next year.

Source : Financial Juice

Lithium Update

Lithium carbonate prices surged further toward CNY 85,000 per tonne in August, erasing this year's slump to the highest in one year as lower output from key mines countered oversupply worries. 

The Chinese government pledged capacity cuts to major industries that have suffered from deflationary pledges in recent years, driving investors to bet on an outlook of lower lithium supply out of the world's top refined lithium producer. 

Expectations of an overhaul to mining policy gained traction after the world's top battery producer, CATL, suspended activity in its Jianxiawo mine after failing to extend a key mining permit. 

The mine is responsible for around 5% of global supply. 

Last year, global output was 35% higher on strong production from China, Indonesia, and the DR Congo. 

Output from main producers was still set to grow this year as miners refrain from voluntarily close operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers.

World Population Distribution

Copper Production 2023

🌩️🌀 HURRICANE WATCH 🌀⛈️ : Erin

Watch Hurricane Erin as it closes in on the USA, potentially the Gulf of America.

SP500 Price to Sales Ratio

SP500 Price to Book Ratio

New Credit Card Account Openings

Housing vs Rental Affordability

Tanker Oil Spills Data

🎗️🎗️🎗️ Fed Chair Powell Will Speak On Friday August 22 Regarding Rate Cut And Succession Speculation

US 15-Year Mortgage Rate : Update

United States 15-Year Mortgage Rate

15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 5.71 percent in August 14 from 5.75 percent in the previous week. 

15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 5.25 percent from 1991 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 8.89 percent in December of 1994 and a record low of 2.10 percent in July of 2021. 

source: Freddie Mac

Shiller P/E

Farmland By US State

Corn Briefing

Corn futures tumbled toward $3.7 per bushel in August, marking their lowest levels since late 2020, as a surge in US and global supply continues to overwhelm demand. 

The latest USDA outlook forecasts a record US corn harvest of 16.7 billion bushels, driven by the second-largest planted area ever at 97.2 million acres and a record-breaking national yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, surpassing expectations by roughly 800 million bushels. 

This stronger-than-expected production is pushing US ending stocks to their highest level since 2018–19. Outside the US, Brazil's early safrinha corn harvest is flooding the market, further depressing domestic prices and undermining US export competitiveness. 

Although global export volumes have increased, they are failing to keep pace with the rapid production growth. 

Additionally, the USDA projects a 24% rise in US corn ending stocks for 2025–26, while inflation-adjusted prices are set to plunge to their lowest July levels since 2006.

Corn Yield : USDA Projection

US Inflation Rate - YoY

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. 

Price pressures increased for used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8% in June), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%) while inflation steadied for food (2.9% vs 2.9%). 

On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) and energy cost declined more (-1.6% vs -0.8%). Prices for gasoline (-9.5% vs -8.3%) and fuel oil (-2.9% vs -4.7%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (13.8% vs 14.2%).On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, just below June's 0.3% gain which was the strongest since January and matching expectations. 

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. 

The monthly core CPI went up 0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics