WTI Crude Oil Update

WTI crude oil futures fell below $64 per barrel on Wednesday, retreating from the four-week high of $65.7 touched earlier in the session amid fresh signs of higher supply. 

Reports indicated that the OPEC+ group is considering raising their oil output at their meeting over the upcoming weekend, surprising markets that had mostly expected an unchanged level of production. 

Such a decision would extend the several output hikes by the cartel this year despite calls of waning fuel demand, as major producers and exporters prioritize regaining their market share and increasing their budget revenues through energy sales. 

In the meantime, data showed that seaborn exports of Russian oil to China rebounded sharply as the world's top importer assumed tankers after a demand pullback from India, largely owed to aggressive tariffs from the United States.

The outlook for fuel demand was also dim in the US following a weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI.

United States Factory Orders

New orders for US manufactured goods fell by 1.3% from the previous month to $603.6 billion in July of 2025, extending the five-year high 4.8% plunge in the previous month and loosely aligned with market expectations of a 1.4% drop.

The drop was led by a second consecutive sharp drop for orders of transportation equipment (-9.5% to $102.0 billion) amid the drop for nondefense aircraft and parts (-32.7% to $19.1 billion), as foreign airlines and companies likely slowed orders of aircraft following April's surge to front-load purchases ahead of tariffs by the US government. 

In turn, orders grew for machinery (1.9% to $38.9 billion), primary metals (1.6% to $27.0 billion), and computers and electronic products (0.5% to $ 26.8 billion). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

US Job Openings Below Forecasts

The number of job openings in the US fell to 7.18 million in July, the lowest since September last year, compared to a downwardly revised 7.35 million in June and well below forecasts of 7.4 million. 

Job openings decreased in health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and mining and logging.

Job openings in the US fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July 2025, the lowest level since September 2024 and well below market expectations of 7.4 million. 

The largest declines came from health care and social assistance (-181,000), arts, entertainment, and recreation (-62,000), and mining and logging (-13,000). 

Regionally, openings dropped most in the South (-161,000), followed by the Northeast (-101,000) and the Midwest (-27,000), while the West bucked the trend with an increase of 113,000 openings.

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

WTI Crude Oil Options Volume Today

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This Week In Energy : EIA

Source/Author: US DOE EIA

We forecast natural gas consumption in the United States will increase 1% to set a record of 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect natural gas consumption to increase across all sectors except for electric power, which had been the source of most natural gas consumption growth in the previous decade.

Natural gas consumption was high in the beginning of the year, driving our forecast. In January, U.S. natural gas consumption was a record 126.8 Bcf/d, 5% more than the previous record set in January 2024, according to data in our Natural Gas Monthly.

In February 2025, U.S. natural gas consumption was 115.9 Bcf/d, 5% more than the previous February consumption record set in 2021. Natural gas consumption in these winter months was driven in part by colder weather, including a polar vortex event in mid-January.

U.S. natural gas consumption typically peaks in January or February, when demand for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors is greatest. According to household data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, 45% of homes use natural gas as their primary heating fuel.

We estimate that U.S. natural gas consumption decreased this spring and summer, compared with consumption over the same period last year, especially in the electric power sector. Natural gas remains the most prevalent source of electricity generation in the United States, but so far in 2025 natural gas has lost market share in the electric power sector to coal, solar, and wind.

We expect increases in natural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sectors to offset decreases in natural gas consumed in the electric power sector. We currently forecast U.S. natural gas consumption will decrease slightly in 2026, due in part to expected milder weather in the winter months and therefore less consumption in the residential and commercial sectors.

Principal contributor: Andrew Iraola
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65984

DXY US Dollar Index Cash : Update

Oct Crude Oil CLV25 : Update

> at StdDev(1) Inflection Point (60min chart)

> not Bullish

Gold : Overnight Update

Gold dipped to around $3,360 per ounce on Monday, following a more than 1% gain in the previous session, as the US dollar attempted to recover after a dovish shift by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell signaled the possibility of rate cuts, noting that while unemployment remains low, labor market risks are rising and monetary policy remains "restrictive," suggesting potential adjustments may be needed. 

Markets reacted swiftly, with futures now nearly fully pricing in a 25bps cut in September. 

Meanwhile, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine also boost the safety appeal for gold. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a defiant address, pledged to continue defending the nation "while its calls for peace are not heard."

His remarks came after Moscow claimed Ukraine targeted Russian power and energy facilities overnight, including a fire at a nuclear plant in the western Kursk region.

Natural Gas Market : Update

US natural gas futures fell toward $2.7/MMBtu on Friday, their lowest since November 2024, as supply remained abundant. 

Production in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 108.4 bcfd so far in August, slightly above July's 107.9 bcfd. 

Despite hotter-than-usual summer temperatures, strong supply has allowed storage levels to remain well above average, about 5.8% higher than typical for this time of year. 

However, the latest weekly injection into storage was below the five-year norm, suggesting limited pressure from demand. 

LNG export flows have risen modestly, averaging 15.8 bcfd in August. 

With weather expected near seasonal norms through early September, demand is unlikely to spike, keeping prices under pressure despite occasional short-term gains.

Beef Cattle Types

Silver : Update

Silver soared to $39 per ounce, approaching the 14-year high of $39.5 touched in the end of July amid the outlook of rate cuts by the Fed, while markets assessed the demand for silver's industrial uses.

The Fed sees a shift in the balance of risks of a weaker labor market against inflation following the revision to payrolls and higher unemployment, likely warranting an adjustment to monetary policy that will translate to a 25bps rate cut in the upcoming September decision.

Additionally, traders moved to place more bets of three total rate cuts this year, supporting non-yielding precious metals. On the industrial front, new data showed that solar cell exports from China grew over 70% in the first half of the year, supported by stronger photovoltaic demand form India.

This was after China installed over 93 gigawatts capacity of solar panels in May, a 300% surge annually to a fresh record high before a new set of policy changes would make it more difficult to attach panels to grids.

Options Plays This Week : Gold & CAD

🚨 BREAKING

Maduro mobilizes Venezuela's Special Forces with Chinese weapons as a show of force, following increased U.S. Navy presence in the Caribbean.

Tensions rise in the region amid growing military posturing.

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Fed Sees Conditions For A Rate Cut

The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, as expected, but two governors dissented in favor of a cut—the first such dual dissent since 1993.

Policymakers observed that, while fluctuations in net exports continue to influence the data, recent indicators point to a moderation in economic activity in H1—contrasting with earlier assessments that growth was proceeding 'at a solid pace'.

The Fed also said that the unemployment rate remains low while inflation remains somewhat elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists.

The Fed reinforced that additional adjustments to the interest rate will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

The central bank maintained a wait-and-see approach amid rising concerns that the ongoing trade war could undermine progress toward the 2% inflation target.

source: Federal Reserve

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