USA Policy Update - Sept 5

G20 MEETING
- Trump: We will discuss G20 soon.
- Trump: I will host 2026 G-20 in Miami.
- Trump: G-20 at my Doral golf course.
- Trump: G-20 to focus on unlocking affordable energy.
- Trump: to invite Poland to 2026 G-20.
- Trump: would love if Xi, Putin attended G-20.
- Xi, Putin Will Observe/Attend G-20.
- Trump: will consider Russia at 2026 G-20.
- Trump: Vice President Vance will take my place at this year G-20.
- Trump: We want to get along with other countries.

RUSSIA SANCTIONS
- US and EU to discuss new Russia sanctions on Monday.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA
- Zelenskiy Declines Putin Invite for Meeting in Moscow.
- Zelenskiy: Putin can come to Kyiv.
- Trump: Ukraine war will end, or there'll be hell to pay.

CHINA DRUGS
- Trump: China, what they're doing with fentanyl is a terrible thing. It's coming through Canada.

HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY
- Senior US Administration Officials: penalties can include sanctions, export controls and exclusion from the US of those responsible for detentions.
- Senior US Administration Officials: Those who refuse to comply with new US policy could see their economies crippled.
- Senior US Administration Officials: Nations in the past that have participated in hostage diplomacy include China, Iran, and Afghanistan.
- Trump signs EO authorizing penalties against countries complicit in holding wrongfully detained Americans.

FED INTEREST RATES & CANDIDATES
- Trump: Interest rates are excessively high.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent does not want Fed job.
- Trump: Fed candidates are Waller, Warsh, & Hassett

🌀 Hurricane Watch : Atlantic 🌀

For : WTI Crude Oil Traders

Notes : It's currently a Tropical Storm that skewed its course a bit more toward The Gulf of America past couple days.

FedWatch : CMEGroup

Market-implied probability of three 2025 rate cuts jumps to 64% post-NFP.

ℹ️ Strategy Status Update ℹ️

Dec WTI Crude Oil CLZ25 : 55 Put

:: Break down below last week's low on good volume

:: Beware of potential price rotation right now

:: Current Contract Value : ~$1390

💡 Strategy Idea : Bearish : Dec WTI Crude Oil 55 Put

> CLZ25

> ~$1125 / contract (as of today)

> Trade for the gain in premium, not for the strike

🇺🇸🇯🇵 US/JAPAN : Trade Update

White House:

- Trump signed executive order implementing US-Japan trade agreement.

- Japan is working toward expedited implementation of a 75% increase in US rice purchases.

- US will apply 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, with special rules for cars, aerospace, generic drugs, and scarce natural resources.

- Japan will increase US imports by $8B yearly, ease vehicle entry, and buy US aircraft and defense gear.

📊 US DOE EIA : Natural Gas Weekly Update

📊 US Land Usage

📊 US DOE EIA : U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel imports fall sharply in 2025 after tax credit change.

U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 (1H25) compared with the same period in previous years. 

This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels and generally lower domestic consumption of these fuels.

Renewable diesel and biodiesel are biomass-based diesel fuels that can replace petroleum-based distillate and be used to comply with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blending requirements for refiners administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

In 1H25, U.S. biodiesel imports averaged 2,000 barrels per day (b/d), a sharp drop from 35,000 b/d in 1H24. Renewable diesel imports averaged 5,000 b/d, down from 33,000 b/d in 1H24. 

These import levels were the lowest for the first half of any year since 2012, when U.S. biodiesel consumption was less than half of 2024 levels and renewable diesel consumption was negligible.

One key reason for the sharp drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel imports in early 2025 is the loss in tax credits for imported biofuels. 

Before 2025, both imported and domestically produced biodiesel and renewable diesel received a $1 per gallon blender's tax credit (BTC). 

The Inflation Reduction Act replaced the BTC with the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit in 2025, which only applies to domestic production. 

This tax credit change placed imports at a relative economic disadvantage.

A second reason biodiesel and renewable diesel imports dropped in 1H25 was low U.S. consumption of these fuels because of uncertainty around blending requirements and negative profit margins for blending biofuels. 

Compared with 1H24, U.S. consumption of renewable diesel was down about 30% in 1H25, and biodiesel consumption was down about 40%. 

This lower consumption reduced demand for both imported and domestically produced biofuels.

The combination of poor blending margins and the relative economic disadvantage for imported biofuels led domestic blenders to rely on domestically produced biofuels for the smaller amounts they were blending. 

As a result, international biofuel producers found fewer profitable opportunities to send product to the United States. 

For example, Neste, the producer of all of the renewable diesel imported to the United States, reported a lower share of exports going to the United States in 1H25 than in 1H24. 

Looking ahead, we expect U.S. consumption of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase as the year progresses to meet existing RFS mandates, but imports of the fuels will likely remain low because of the change in tax policy.

Although we do not explicitly forecast biodiesel and renewable diesel imports in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we do forecast U.S. net imports. 

We assume low imports for both products in the forecast period and forecast U.S. biodiesel net imports in 2025 and 2026 to be their lowest since 2012.

Principal contributor: Jimmy Troderman

📊 US Goods & Services Trade Deficit

> source US BEA on 9/4/25 for July

FULL ARTICLE : https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-july-2025

Top 10 Largest Central Banks

How The Largest Importers Of Russian Fossil Fuels Have Changed Between 2022 & 2025

Crude Oil Import Data : Update

WTI Crude Oil Update

WTI crude oil futures fell below $64 per barrel on Wednesday, retreating from the four-week high of $65.7 touched earlier in the session amid fresh signs of higher supply. 

Reports indicated that the OPEC+ group is considering raising their oil output at their meeting over the upcoming weekend, surprising markets that had mostly expected an unchanged level of production. 

Such a decision would extend the several output hikes by the cartel this year despite calls of waning fuel demand, as major producers and exporters prioritize regaining their market share and increasing their budget revenues through energy sales. 

In the meantime, data showed that seaborn exports of Russian oil to China rebounded sharply as the world's top importer assumed tankers after a demand pullback from India, largely owed to aggressive tariffs from the United States.

The outlook for fuel demand was also dim in the US following a weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI.

United States Factory Orders

New orders for US manufactured goods fell by 1.3% from the previous month to $603.6 billion in July of 2025, extending the five-year high 4.8% plunge in the previous month and loosely aligned with market expectations of a 1.4% drop.

The drop was led by a second consecutive sharp drop for orders of transportation equipment (-9.5% to $102.0 billion) amid the drop for nondefense aircraft and parts (-32.7% to $19.1 billion), as foreign airlines and companies likely slowed orders of aircraft following April's surge to front-load purchases ahead of tariffs by the US government. 

In turn, orders grew for machinery (1.9% to $38.9 billion), primary metals (1.6% to $27.0 billion), and computers and electronic products (0.5% to $ 26.8 billion). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

US Job Openings Below Forecasts

The number of job openings in the US fell to 7.18 million in July, the lowest since September last year, compared to a downwardly revised 7.35 million in June and well below forecasts of 7.4 million. 

Job openings decreased in health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and mining and logging.

Job openings in the US fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July 2025, the lowest level since September 2024 and well below market expectations of 7.4 million. 

The largest declines came from health care and social assistance (-181,000), arts, entertainment, and recreation (-62,000), and mining and logging (-13,000). 

Regionally, openings dropped most in the South (-161,000), followed by the Northeast (-101,000) and the Midwest (-27,000), while the West bucked the trend with an increase of 113,000 openings.

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

WTI Crude Oil Options Volume Today

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Canada's Current Account Deficit Hits Record

1995 Dow Theory Letters : Interesting

Foreign Central Banks Hold More Gold Than Treasuries

Corn Exports : Update

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US Tariff Rates By Country

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Strait of Hormuz

Aluminum Smelter Production 2023

US Federal Reserve Act Gives President Power To Remove "FOR CAUSE"