Russell 2000 Futures : Update

Large Speculator Positioning : Russell 2000

Russell 2000 Small Cap Futures

:::: CFTC COT Positioning : Large Speculators

>>> Net Short

>>> Approaching Extreme Level ‼️

IN PLAY : Sept New Zealand Dollar 6NU25

The New Zealand dollar fell more than 1% to $0.582 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since mid-April after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates as expected and signaled scope for further easing. 

The central bank slashed its official cash rate by 25bps to a three-year low of 3%, bringing its easing cycle so far to a whopping 250bps, as policymakers moved to revive a struggling economy and shield it against risks from US tariff policy. 

The RBNZ also lowered its projected floor for the cash rate to 2.55%, from 2.85% forecast in May. 

After the announcement, markets quickly price two more rate cuts by year-end, assigning a 50% chance of a move in October and 100% for November. 

The kiwi also faced additional pressure from a rising US dollar, as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week for more clues on US rate trajectory. 

Elsewhere, NZ's two-year swap rates dropped to 2.91%, the lowest since early 2022.

Bitcoin Holdings By Company

Nvidia-Led Tech Decline Breaks Summer Calm in Equities

Wall Street's summer calm cracked as a selloff in big tech led to major equity gauges going lower, highlighting the US market's narrow reliance on a handful of growth giants.

The Nasdaq 100 declined 1.4% - its second-worst fall since April's tariff surprise – led by a rout in Nvidia. 

That pressure overwhelmed gains in over 350 shares in the S&P 500, revealing the fragility of an index supported by megacaps. Home Depot's earnings raised big-box retailers, while Intel jumped as the US is ironing out details of a deal to take a 10% stake in the chipmaker.

Treasuries climbed ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with traders firming up bets on a September cut. 

10-Yr yields declined 3 BPS to 4.30%. 

S&P Global Ratings said revenues from tariffs will help soften the blow to the US's fiscal health from tax cuts, allowing it to preserve its credit grade. 

The crypto world joined a decline in risky assets.

Traders are waiting to see if Fed's Powell confirms the market pricing - or pushes back with a reminder that new data arriving before the next meeting could alter the picture. 

They're also looking for hints about the longer-run trajectory of Fed cuts into next year.

Source : Financial Juice

Lithium Update

Lithium carbonate prices surged further toward CNY 85,000 per tonne in August, erasing this year's slump to the highest in one year as lower output from key mines countered oversupply worries. 

The Chinese government pledged capacity cuts to major industries that have suffered from deflationary pledges in recent years, driving investors to bet on an outlook of lower lithium supply out of the world's top refined lithium producer. 

Expectations of an overhaul to mining policy gained traction after the world's top battery producer, CATL, suspended activity in its Jianxiawo mine after failing to extend a key mining permit. 

The mine is responsible for around 5% of global supply. 

Last year, global output was 35% higher on strong production from China, Indonesia, and the DR Congo. 

Output from main producers was still set to grow this year as miners refrain from voluntarily close operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers.

World Population Distribution

Copper Production 2023

🌩️🌀 HURRICANE WATCH 🌀⛈️ : Erin

Watch Hurricane Erin as it closes in on the USA, potentially the Gulf of America.

SP500 Price to Sales Ratio

SP500 Price to Book Ratio

New Credit Card Account Openings

Housing vs Rental Affordability

Tanker Oil Spills Data

🎗️🎗️🎗️ Fed Chair Powell Will Speak On Friday August 22 Regarding Rate Cut And Succession Speculation

US 15-Year Mortgage Rate : Update

United States 15-Year Mortgage Rate

15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 5.71 percent in August 14 from 5.75 percent in the previous week. 

15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 5.25 percent from 1991 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 8.89 percent in December of 1994 and a record low of 2.10 percent in July of 2021. 

source: Freddie Mac

Shiller P/E

Farmland By US State

Corn Briefing

Corn futures tumbled toward $3.7 per bushel in August, marking their lowest levels since late 2020, as a surge in US and global supply continues to overwhelm demand. 

The latest USDA outlook forecasts a record US corn harvest of 16.7 billion bushels, driven by the second-largest planted area ever at 97.2 million acres and a record-breaking national yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, surpassing expectations by roughly 800 million bushels. 

This stronger-than-expected production is pushing US ending stocks to their highest level since 2018–19. Outside the US, Brazil's early safrinha corn harvest is flooding the market, further depressing domestic prices and undermining US export competitiveness. 

Although global export volumes have increased, they are failing to keep pace with the rapid production growth. 

Additionally, the USDA projects a 24% rise in US corn ending stocks for 2025–26, while inflation-adjusted prices are set to plunge to their lowest July levels since 2006.

Corn Yield : USDA Projection

US Inflation Rate - YoY

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. 

Price pressures increased for used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8% in June), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%) while inflation steadied for food (2.9% vs 2.9%). 

On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) and energy cost declined more (-1.6% vs -0.8%). Prices for gasoline (-9.5% vs -8.3%) and fuel oil (-2.9% vs -4.7%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (13.8% vs 14.2%).On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, just below June's 0.3% gain which was the strongest since January and matching expectations. 

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. 

The monthly core CPI went up 0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Top Sectors for FDI Into USA

Equities Halt Rally

Wall Street ended a rally that drove equities to the edge of a record amid worries about an overheated market.

Treasuries lost steam as a weak sale of 30-year bonds signalled fading desire for US debt after a recent surge.

After an almost 30% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 closed little changed.

A closely observed gauge of chipmakers rose, but Intel declined 3% as Trump called on its chief to resign, citing conflicts of interest.

Eli Lilly slipped 14% after disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill.

Apple continued a two-day surge to about 8.5%.

Thursday's $25 bln Treasury sale followed weak results for 3- and 10-Yr debt auctions this week.

Long-end gains slowed, leaving 30-Yr yields little changed at 4.83%.

The yield on 10-yr bonds climbed two basis points to 4.25%.

The dollar barely moved.

Whether or not the blistering rally in US stocks is about to cool, some large businesses have cautioned clients to prepare for a near-term pullback amid sky-high valuations.

Added to bulls' worries is seasonality. August and September have historically been the two worst months for the S&P 500.

Earlier gains in equities were pushed by hopes of a de-escalation of geopolitical risks after Russia said Putin and Trump are finalising details for a meeting.

Stocks were also bolstered by Trump's vow to exempt businesses that move production to the USA after stating plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports.

source : FinancialJuice

Fund Market Exposure

Hedge Funds just reduced gross exposure at the fastest pace in more than 5 years : Goldman Sachs

US Housing Market

Jerome Powell needs to drop rates huge now!

Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.

US Trade Gap Falls To Lowest Level Since 2023

The US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June 2025, the lowest since September 2023, compared to a revised $71.7 billion gap in May and forecasts of a $61.6 billion shortfall. 

Imports declined 3.7% to $337.5 billion, the lowest since March 2024 led by pharmaceutical preparations, passenger cars, crude oil and nuclear fuel materials. 

Exports went down 0.5% to $277.3 billion, the lowest since January, mainly due to finished metal shapes, nonmonetary gold and computer accessories. 

The largest trade deficit was with Mexico, though it narrowed slightly to $16.3 billion from $17.1 billion. 

The deficit with China declined to $9.4 billion and the gap with the EU shrank significantly to $9.5 billion from $22.5 billion. 

On the other hand, trade deficits widened with Vietnam ($16.2 billion vs. $15 billion), Taiwan ($12.9 billion vs. $11.5 billion), and India ($5.3 billion vs. $5.1 billion). 

The trade balance with Switzerland switched to slight deficit of less than $0.1 billion. 

source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Copper Update

Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff exemption. 

President Donald Trump announced that the newly imposed copper tariffs would apply only to semi-finished products such as wires and pipes, sparing key inputs like ore, cathodes, and concentrates, the most commonly imported forms of copper. 

Traders had previously rushed shipments into the US to frontload expected tariffs, inflating domestic premiums. 

With the exemption now in place, those premiums are unwinding quickly. 

Analysts also warned the US may face a glut of copper, with excess inventory potentially being re-exported, adding further pressure to global prices.

The Week Ahead - Aug 4th

Next week, investor attention will remain focused on President Trump's trade war, following the announcement of sweeping tariffs on August 1st. 

Meanwhile, the earnings season continues in full swing, with key reports due from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, AMD, Amgen, McDonald's, and Eli Lilly. 

In the US, important economic data releases include the ISM Services PMI, trade balance, factory orders, and the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity and labor costs. 

Globally, monetary policy decisions are expected from the BoE, the RBI, and Mexico's central bank. Other key data include trade and inflation for China; retail sales and producer prices for the Eurozone; factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures for Germany; trade and PMIs for Australia; trade and employment for Canada; inflation from Mexico, Switzerland and Turkey; and GDP growth figures from Indonesia and the Philippines.

US and Americas

In the US, the earnings season continues, with key reports expected from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, Uber, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Arista Networks, Gilead Sciences, ConocoPhillips and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. On the policy front, markets will closely monitor remarks from some Fed officials for fresh insights into the interest rate outlook—particularly in the wake of the latest US jobs report, which signaled a marked slowdown in labor market momentum. In terms of economic data, the spotlight will be on the ISM Services PMI, expected to show the strongest pace of service sector expansion in three months. Meanwhile, factory orders are forecast to fall by 5.2% in June, reversing an 8.2% surge in May. The trade deficit is also projected to narrow sharply, driven by a steep drop in imports. Additional key releases include the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity and labour costs and consumer credit change. Elsewhere in the Americas, Banco de México is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps. Investors will also keep an eye on Canada's employment report, trade balance, and Ivey PMI, as well as Mexico's inflation, and Brazil's trade figures.

Europe

All eyes in the UK will be on the Bank of England, widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4%, as recent data has shifted the policy focus from inflation concerns to deteriorating growth prospects. Economic releases will be light in the UK, with attention turning to the Halifax House Price Index. In the Eurozone, key data will come from Germany, where factory orders are expected to rebound after previous weakness, though industrial production may still decline while the trade surplus is seen little changed. In France, industrial output is forecast to rise after two months of contraction. Services PMI figures from Italy and Spain are likely to show ongoing expansion. In Switzerland, the procure.ch Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.9 and inflation should remain flat at 0.1%. Meanwhile, in Turkey, inflation is seen rising 2.4% month-over-month, but the annual rate is projected to ease to 34.05%, the lowest since November 2021. Additional releases include Eurozone retail sales and producer prices, Spain's jobless numbers, Italy's industrial output, France's trade balance and unemployment, Switzerland's jobless rate and consumer confidence, and Turkey's trade figures.

Asia and Australia

Market attention will shift to key data out of China. The country's trade surplus is expected to have narrowed slightly to $103.5 billion in July. Inflation data is also due later in the week, alongside the Caixin Services PMI, which is anticipated to show the services sector approaching stagnation. Current account figures will also be in focus. In Japan, investors will analyze minutes from the Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting and key releases include household spending, the leading economic index, Eco Watchers survey results, and the final S&P Global Services PMI. In India, the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. In Australia, attention will be on the trade balance which is expected to show a higher trade surplus, household spending, and industry activity indexes. Across the broader Asia-Pacific region, markets will closely monitor July PMI readings from major economies, as well as inflation data from South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan. GDP growth figures from Indonesia and the Philippines are also scheduled for release.

Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 8/1/2025 3:00:25 PM

US Nonfarm Payrolls

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 73K in July 2025, well below expectations of 110K. 

The June figure was sharply revised down from an initial 147K to just 14K, while May's reading was also cut by 125K. 

Taken together, these revisions show that employment in May and June was 258K lower than previously reported—suggesting the labor market may be cooling more rapidly than initially anticipated. 

In July, employment continued to trend up in health care (55K), led by ambulatory health care services (34K) and hospitals (16K). 

Job gains also happened in social assistance (18K). 

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality. 

On the other hand, federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12K) and is down by 84K since reaching a peak in January. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Week Ahead

Trade negotiations between the US and key partners, especially the EU, will dominate headlines. 

It's also the busiest week for earnings, with megacaps set to report. 

Monetary policy decisions from the Fed, BoJ, and BoC will be closely watched. 

Finally, the advance Q2 GDP estimate, monthly jobs report, PCE release, and ISM Manufacturing PMI are due in US.