World Population Distribution

Copper Production 2023

🌩️🌀 HURRICANE WATCH 🌀⛈️ : Erin

Watch Hurricane Erin as it closes in on the USA, potentially the Gulf of America.

SP500 Price to Sales Ratio

SP500 Price to Book Ratio

New Credit Card Account Openings

Housing vs Rental Affordability

Tanker Oil Spills Data

🎗️🎗️🎗️ Fed Chair Powell Will Speak On Friday August 22 Regarding Rate Cut And Succession Speculation

US 15-Year Mortgage Rate : Update

United States 15-Year Mortgage Rate

15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 5.71 percent in August 14 from 5.75 percent in the previous week. 

15 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 5.25 percent from 1991 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 8.89 percent in December of 1994 and a record low of 2.10 percent in July of 2021. 

source: Freddie Mac

Shiller P/E

Farmland By US State

Corn Briefing

Corn futures tumbled toward $3.7 per bushel in August, marking their lowest levels since late 2020, as a surge in US and global supply continues to overwhelm demand. 

The latest USDA outlook forecasts a record US corn harvest of 16.7 billion bushels, driven by the second-largest planted area ever at 97.2 million acres and a record-breaking national yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, surpassing expectations by roughly 800 million bushels. 

This stronger-than-expected production is pushing US ending stocks to their highest level since 2018–19. Outside the US, Brazil's early safrinha corn harvest is flooding the market, further depressing domestic prices and undermining US export competitiveness. 

Although global export volumes have increased, they are failing to keep pace with the rapid production growth. 

Additionally, the USDA projects a 24% rise in US corn ending stocks for 2025–26, while inflation-adjusted prices are set to plunge to their lowest July levels since 2006.

Corn Yield : USDA Projection

US Inflation Rate - YoY

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. 

Price pressures increased for used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8% in June), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%) while inflation steadied for food (2.9% vs 2.9%). 

On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) and energy cost declined more (-1.6% vs -0.8%). Prices for gasoline (-9.5% vs -8.3%) and fuel oil (-2.9% vs -4.7%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (13.8% vs 14.2%).On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, just below June's 0.3% gain which was the strongest since January and matching expectations. 

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. 

The monthly core CPI went up 0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Top Sectors for FDI Into USA

Equities Halt Rally

Wall Street ended a rally that drove equities to the edge of a record amid worries about an overheated market.

Treasuries lost steam as a weak sale of 30-year bonds signalled fading desire for US debt after a recent surge.

After an almost 30% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 closed little changed.

A closely observed gauge of chipmakers rose, but Intel declined 3% as Trump called on its chief to resign, citing conflicts of interest.

Eli Lilly slipped 14% after disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill.

Apple continued a two-day surge to about 8.5%.

Thursday's $25 bln Treasury sale followed weak results for 3- and 10-Yr debt auctions this week.

Long-end gains slowed, leaving 30-Yr yields little changed at 4.83%.

The yield on 10-yr bonds climbed two basis points to 4.25%.

The dollar barely moved.

Whether or not the blistering rally in US stocks is about to cool, some large businesses have cautioned clients to prepare for a near-term pullback amid sky-high valuations.

Added to bulls' worries is seasonality. August and September have historically been the two worst months for the S&P 500.

Earlier gains in equities were pushed by hopes of a de-escalation of geopolitical risks after Russia said Putin and Trump are finalising details for a meeting.

Stocks were also bolstered by Trump's vow to exempt businesses that move production to the USA after stating plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports.

source : FinancialJuice

Fund Market Exposure

Hedge Funds just reduced gross exposure at the fastest pace in more than 5 years : Goldman Sachs

US Housing Market

Jerome Powell needs to drop rates huge now!

Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.

US Trade Gap Falls To Lowest Level Since 2023

The US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June 2025, the lowest since September 2023, compared to a revised $71.7 billion gap in May and forecasts of a $61.6 billion shortfall. 

Imports declined 3.7% to $337.5 billion, the lowest since March 2024 led by pharmaceutical preparations, passenger cars, crude oil and nuclear fuel materials. 

Exports went down 0.5% to $277.3 billion, the lowest since January, mainly due to finished metal shapes, nonmonetary gold and computer accessories. 

The largest trade deficit was with Mexico, though it narrowed slightly to $16.3 billion from $17.1 billion. 

The deficit with China declined to $9.4 billion and the gap with the EU shrank significantly to $9.5 billion from $22.5 billion. 

On the other hand, trade deficits widened with Vietnam ($16.2 billion vs. $15 billion), Taiwan ($12.9 billion vs. $11.5 billion), and India ($5.3 billion vs. $5.1 billion). 

The trade balance with Switzerland switched to slight deficit of less than $0.1 billion. 

source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Copper Update

Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff exemption. 

President Donald Trump announced that the newly imposed copper tariffs would apply only to semi-finished products such as wires and pipes, sparing key inputs like ore, cathodes, and concentrates, the most commonly imported forms of copper. 

Traders had previously rushed shipments into the US to frontload expected tariffs, inflating domestic premiums. 

With the exemption now in place, those premiums are unwinding quickly. 

Analysts also warned the US may face a glut of copper, with excess inventory potentially being re-exported, adding further pressure to global prices.

The Week Ahead - Aug 4th

Next week, investor attention will remain focused on President Trump's trade war, following the announcement of sweeping tariffs on August 1st. 

Meanwhile, the earnings season continues in full swing, with key reports due from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, AMD, Amgen, McDonald's, and Eli Lilly. 

In the US, important economic data releases include the ISM Services PMI, trade balance, factory orders, and the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity and labor costs. 

Globally, monetary policy decisions are expected from the BoE, the RBI, and Mexico's central bank. Other key data include trade and inflation for China; retail sales and producer prices for the Eurozone; factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures for Germany; trade and PMIs for Australia; trade and employment for Canada; inflation from Mexico, Switzerland and Turkey; and GDP growth figures from Indonesia and the Philippines.

US and Americas

In the US, the earnings season continues, with key reports expected from Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, Uber, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Arista Networks, Gilead Sciences, ConocoPhillips and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. On the policy front, markets will closely monitor remarks from some Fed officials for fresh insights into the interest rate outlook—particularly in the wake of the latest US jobs report, which signaled a marked slowdown in labor market momentum. In terms of economic data, the spotlight will be on the ISM Services PMI, expected to show the strongest pace of service sector expansion in three months. Meanwhile, factory orders are forecast to fall by 5.2% in June, reversing an 8.2% surge in May. The trade deficit is also projected to narrow sharply, driven by a steep drop in imports. Additional key releases include the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity and labour costs and consumer credit change. Elsewhere in the Americas, Banco de México is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps. Investors will also keep an eye on Canada's employment report, trade balance, and Ivey PMI, as well as Mexico's inflation, and Brazil's trade figures.

Europe

All eyes in the UK will be on the Bank of England, widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4%, as recent data has shifted the policy focus from inflation concerns to deteriorating growth prospects. Economic releases will be light in the UK, with attention turning to the Halifax House Price Index. In the Eurozone, key data will come from Germany, where factory orders are expected to rebound after previous weakness, though industrial production may still decline while the trade surplus is seen little changed. In France, industrial output is forecast to rise after two months of contraction. Services PMI figures from Italy and Spain are likely to show ongoing expansion. In Switzerland, the procure.ch Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.9 and inflation should remain flat at 0.1%. Meanwhile, in Turkey, inflation is seen rising 2.4% month-over-month, but the annual rate is projected to ease to 34.05%, the lowest since November 2021. Additional releases include Eurozone retail sales and producer prices, Spain's jobless numbers, Italy's industrial output, France's trade balance and unemployment, Switzerland's jobless rate and consumer confidence, and Turkey's trade figures.

Asia and Australia

Market attention will shift to key data out of China. The country's trade surplus is expected to have narrowed slightly to $103.5 billion in July. Inflation data is also due later in the week, alongside the Caixin Services PMI, which is anticipated to show the services sector approaching stagnation. Current account figures will also be in focus. In Japan, investors will analyze minutes from the Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting and key releases include household spending, the leading economic index, Eco Watchers survey results, and the final S&P Global Services PMI. In India, the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. In Australia, attention will be on the trade balance which is expected to show a higher trade surplus, household spending, and industry activity indexes. Across the broader Asia-Pacific region, markets will closely monitor July PMI readings from major economies, as well as inflation data from South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan. GDP growth figures from Indonesia and the Philippines are also scheduled for release.

Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 8/1/2025 3:00:25 PM

US Nonfarm Payrolls

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 73K in July 2025, well below expectations of 110K. 

The June figure was sharply revised down from an initial 147K to just 14K, while May's reading was also cut by 125K. 

Taken together, these revisions show that employment in May and June was 258K lower than previously reported—suggesting the labor market may be cooling more rapidly than initially anticipated. 

In July, employment continued to trend up in health care (55K), led by ambulatory health care services (34K) and hospitals (16K). 

Job gains also happened in social assistance (18K). 

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality. 

On the other hand, federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12K) and is down by 84K since reaching a peak in January. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Week Ahead

Trade negotiations between the US and key partners, especially the EU, will dominate headlines. 

It's also the busiest week for earnings, with megacaps set to report. 

Monetary policy decisions from the Fed, BoJ, and BoC will be closely watched. 

Finally, the advance Q2 GDP estimate, monthly jobs report, PCE release, and ISM Manufacturing PMI are due in US.

Russia Cuts Interest Rates

The Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% on its July 2025 meeting, in line with median market expectations, and signaled that it will likely deliver another rate cut this year. 

The central bank noted that disinflationary pressures have developed at a strong magnitude than expected in the last policy decision in June, warranting looser financial conditions to attend to growth concerns. 

The latest data showed that annual inflation was at 9.4% in June.

The CBR stated that the impact of restrictive borrowing costs is becoming more apparent due to the appreciation of the ruble and slower household consumption. 

Additionally, signs of a softening labor market continued despite the persistent shrinkage of the labor force, largely due to Putin's military mobilization triggered a diaspora of working-aged men. 

source: Central Bank of Russia

United States Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders in the US declined 9.3% month-over-month to $311.84 billion in June 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 16.5% jump in May, and compared to forecasts of a bigger 10.8% slide. 

The biggest decline was seen in orders for transport equipment (-22.4%), mostly nondefense aircraft and parts (-51.8%) and capital goods (-22.2%), mainly nondefense (-24). 

Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.2% and excluding defense, orders edged up 0.1%. 

Increases were seen in orders for fabricated metal products (0.2%), machinery (0.4%), primary metals (0.6%) and computers and electronics (0.6%). 

Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, declined 0.7%, following an upwardly revised 2% advance in May and compared to forecasts of a 0.2% rise. 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Sends Crude to OPEC’s Backyard

• Due to reduced domestic refinery demand and supply shortages in Nigeria, the U.S. exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported in February and March 2025.
• Nigeria's new 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery has turned to U.S. WTI crude for its superior gasoline blending qualities.
• WTI made up for 1/3 of its June feedstock.

Lower demand for crude oil from refiners at home gave a boost to U.S. exports of the commodity, turning it into a net exporter to OPEC member Nigeria in two of the seven months since the start of this year.

The news comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which said this week that the United States exported more crude oil to Nigeria in February and March than it imported from it. The specific focus on Nigeria is because of the new Dangote refinery that went into operation recently. A much-needed processing facility in the West African nation, the refinery immediately suffered a shortage of local crude, prompting higher imports, notably from the United States.

As a result, U.S. exports to Nigeria rose to 111,000 barrels daily in February, going up further to 169,000 barrels daily a month later. Imports from Nigeria, meanwhile, fell to 54,000 barrels daily in February, ticking a bit higher the next month to 72,000 barrels daily. For context, the January average in oil imports from Nigeria stood at 133,000 barrels daily.

The reason for the temporarily lower demand for crude at home was the result of maintenance at a Phillips 66 refinery in New Jersey. The facility underwent maintenance in the first quarter of the year, returning to normal operations in April, which led to a return to normal oil trade trends between the United States and Nigeria.

Related: Iran Hit by Power Protests as Oil Exports Surge to 1.9 Million bpd

Exports of oil to Nigeria, however, are likely to remain strong, whatever the refinery maintenance situation. West Texas Intermediate has better gasoline blending capabilities because it yields greater volumes of reformate—a gasoline blending component produced through catalytic reforming. This is the technical advantage over other blends. But U.S. crude also has logistical advantages over other blends.

Earlier in the year, demand for U.S. crude in Asia shrank amid the trade war between President Trump and China, making volumes available to other buyers, especially ones that need the feedstock rather urgently due to failure to boost local supply. This is exactly what happened in Nigeria. Africa's top OPEC member has been struggling to materially boost domestic crude output, so the 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery built by Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, has been sourcing more WTI crude as it ramps up to capacity.

As of June, U.S. WTI purchases accounted for a third of the crude sourced by the Dangote refinery, which should at some point be able to cover 100% of Nigeria's demand for all refined petroleum products and will also have a surplus of each of the products for export. So far, Nigeria has been importing all the fuels it consumes despite being the largest crude oil producer in Africa.

Even so, Nigeria has been struggling to boost production, currently at some 1.4 million barrels daily, which is below the country's quota under the OPEC+ agreement from 2022. The government, however, is calling for a revision of these quotas, seeking a higher production rate, to the tune of 2 million barrels daily in two years, of which 1.7 million barrels daily of crude oil and 300,000 bpd of condensates. This is part of an ambition to boost the production capacity of Nigeria's oil industry to 2.4 million barrels daily over the medium term.

In the U.S., meanwhile, two refineries are set to shut down in California, one operated by Valero and another operated by Phillips 66, with a combined capacity of close to 300,000 barrels daily. This will likely have a permanent effect on domestic crude oil demand and possibly keep the availability of West Texas Intermediate for exports to Nigeria steady for the observable future.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Euro Area Interest Rate

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July, effectively marking the end of its current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. 

The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, while the deposit facility rate holds at 2.0%. 

Policymakers struck a wait-and-see stance, as they evaluate the impact of lingering trade uncertainty and the potential fallout from proposed US tariffs on economic growth and inflation. 

Inflation hit the ECB's 2% target in June, adding to the case for a pause in policy adjustments. 

Speaking at the ECB press conference, President Lagarde said the central bank is "in a good place" but acknowledged the difficulty in assessing how tariffs will affect price outlooks, given the mix of both inflationary and disinflationary pressures. 

On the recent euro appreciation, Lagarde reiterated that the ECB does not target exchange rates directly but considers them when forecasting inflation. 

source: European Central Bank

United States Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 4,000 from the previous week to 217,000 in the third week of July, well under market expectations that they would increase to 227,000. 

It was the sixth consecutive decline in initial claims to the lowest since April, extending the period of relative robustness in the US labor market following brief alarms earlier in the year. 

On the other hand, outstanding claims inched higher to 1,955,000 in the earlier week, marginally below market expectations but remaining at the second highest reading since November of 2021, reflecting a slowdown in the hiring momentum despite low unemployment. 

Initial claims filed by federal government employees, which have been under scrutiny following recent dismissals by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), jumped by 193 to 789, the highest in four months. 

source: U.S. Department of Labor

United States New Home Sales

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States rose 0.6% in June 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 627,000 units, slightly up from May's seven-month low of 623,000 but still well below market expectations of 650,000. 

The data indicate continued pressure on the housing market, as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have led many buyers to delay purchasing decisions. 

Regionally, new home sales increased in the South (up 5.1% to 390,000) and the Midwest (up 6.3% to 85,000), while declining sharply in the Northeast (down 27.6% to 21,000) and the West (down 8.4% to 131,000). 

The number of unsold homes on the market rose to 511,000, the highest since October 2007, up from 505,000 in May. 

At the current sales pace, it would take 9.8 months to sell all the new houses available, slightly longer than May's 9.7 months. 

The median price for a new home fell 2.9% to $401,800 in June compared to a year ago. 

source: U.S. Census Bureau