Tuesday, July 1, 2025

US Job Openings

The number of job openings in the US rose by 374,000 to 7.769 million in May 2025, the highest level since November 2024 and well above market expectations of 7.3 million. 

The largest gains were seen in accommodation and food services, which added 314,000 openings, followed by finance and insurance with an increase of 91,000. 

In contrast, job openings in the federal government declined by 39,000. 

Regionally, openings increased sharply in the South (+310,000), followed by the Midwest (+97,000) and the Northeast (+45,000). However, the West saw a decline of 77,000 openings. 

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, compared to forecasts of 48.8, signalling economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month. 

However, the rate of contraction slowed, amid a rebound in production (50.3 vs 45.4) and improvements in inventories (49.2 vs 46.7). 

On the other hand, new orders (46.4 vs 47.6), employment (45 vs 46.8) and backlog of orders (44.3 vs 47.1) contracted at a faster pace. 

Also, inflationary pressures increased slightly (69.7 vs 69.4) and tariffs-induced prices growth accelerated. 

Meanwhile, the Supplier Deliveries Index (54.2 vs 56.1) indicated slower deliveries but improved performance, indicating that the delays in clearing goods through ports of entry are largely complete. 

source: Institute for Supply Management

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Energies & Geopolitical Update

Following the collapse of geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, oil is back to trading on supply, demand, and OPEC+ expectations.















The Israel-Iran ceasefire and the lack of subsequent retaliatory attacks has drained oil markets of the elevated geopolitical risk that saw Brent near $80 per barrel last week, only to post a $9 per barrel week-on-week drop and trade around $68 per barrel on Friday. Now that the Middle East is relatively calm, there are two main price-defining events ahead - OPEC+ with its July 06 meeting and Donald Trump with his July 09 tariff war deadline.

Shell Denies BP Takeover Talks. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL)refuted market speculation that it is in 'early talks' to take over its long-standing rival BP (NYSE:BP), issuing a statement that under UK market rules it would be barred from making any BP-relevant moves over the next six months. 

US' Most Notorious Power Plant to Restart by 2027. The Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, offline after an expedited decommissioning prompted by the 1979 nuclear leakage incident, is set to restart in 2027 to boost the regional grid, as confirmed by operator Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG)

Trump Signals Weaker Iran Enforcement. Whilst President Trump's rhetoric vis-à-vis Iran was quite bellicose during the 12-day war with Israel, the US President hintedthat China will be allowed to continue buying Iranian oil and that the US government wants to see Iran getting back into shape. 

Saudi Export Revenue Collapses on Low Prices. Saudi Arabia's revenue from oil and refined product exports plunged to its lowest since June 2021, totalling only $16.5 billion (down 21% year-on-year), as lower oil prices risk to derail the country's Vision 2030 strategy, estimated to cost $1.3 trillion. 

Egypt Doubles Down on LNG. Egypt has been struggling to keep its economy running after Israel halted pipeline deliveries for two weeks, prompting it to maximizeLNG imports with July arrivals expected to hit an all-time high (surpassing 0.51 Mt from a year ago) after both May and June posted 0.48 Mt. 

Russia Mulls Full Gasoline Export Ban. Russia's Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) has proposed a complete ban on gasoline exports to tackle high domestic prices, jumping to ₽65,000 per metric tonne ($830/mt) earlier this month, potentially taking off some 100,000 b/d of light distillate from the market. 

Iraq Seeks Investors for First Ever LNG Terminal. Iraq is in advanced talks with US LNG developer Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) to build its first-ever LNG import terminal as Baghdad still struggles with power outages and seeks to cut dependence on Iranian imports, under pressure from Trump. 

Brazil Offshore Auction Sees Record Interest. Brazil's 5th Permanent Concession Offer licensing saw the country's government rake in a record $180 million in signing bonuses after 34 of the frontier exploration blocks were allotted, with state oil giantPetrobras (NYSE:PBR) leading the pack with 13 awards.  

Israel Restarts Its Offshore Gas Fields. Israel's two offshore natural gas fields that supply neighbouring countries Egypt and Jordan have resumed production after the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, after both Chevron's Leviathan and Energean's Karish were shut for two weeks. 

Iran Seeks to Cease Any IAEA Cooperation. Iran's parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the US attacks on Fordow and Natanz, stipulating that any future inspection would need the approval of the Supreme National Security Council.

Trump Cabinet Pushes for GoA Auction. The Trump administration is proposing to hold a huge lease sale this December in the Gulf of America (formerly known as Gulf of Mexico) covering 80 million acres and comprising some 15,000 unleased blocks, whilst lowering the Biden-era royalty rates to 16.67%.   

Turkey to Expand into Libya's Offshore. Libya's National Oil Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Turkish state oil company TPAO for geological and geophysical study of its offshore areas, less than a week after Tripoli objected to Greece's hydrocarbon exploration to the south of Crete.

Copper Soars on Weakening Dollar. Copper prices reached a three-month high this week on the back of US dollar sliding lower and LME copper stocks now a third of what they were in January (93,075 tonnes), with cash settlement prices rising above $10,000 per metric tonne for the first time this year.

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Jerome Powell Talking Points

It's been slow going from the Fed chair thus far:

Markets have been digesting an unusually challenging set of circumstances

  • Enormous benefits of having the dollar as the reserve currency
  • Asked about recent USD weakness, says markets have been digesting an unusually challenging set of circumstances
  • He is open to possibility that tariff translation to inflation could be more or less than anticipated
  • The bond market is functioning well
  • Waiting to see what shows up in measured inflation
  • Tariffs might well be a one-time inflation event
  • If we make a mistake on tariff inflation, people will pay the cost for a long time
  • Not seeing stagflation now, it's not the base case
  • If there were stagflation it would put the Fed in a tough place
  • Does not want to give a lot of forward guidance
  • Makes sense to move slowly when there is more uncertainty, in most cases
  • Economy growing, inflation is in a pretty good place
  • Watching labor market very carefully

Powell's comments haven't had any market impact today. 

The market is pricing in 60.6 bps of easing into year end.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com

Monday, June 23, 2025

Size of Bitcoin

Uranium Explained



WTI Extends Price Fall on Trump Cease Fire Talks

WTI crude oil futures tumbled 7.2% to settle at $68.50 per barrel on Monday, after Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar resulted in no reported casualties, easing fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions.

The attack, launched in retaliation for US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, was intercepted by Qatari defenses, prompting a sharp retreat from $74.30—the highest level since January. 

While markets are now pricing in a potential de-escalation, significant risks remain—chief among them the threat of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for about 20% of global oil flows. 

Although Iran's parliament reportedly backed the move, the final decision rests with the country's national security council. 

US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned that such a step would be "economic suicide" for Iran and urged China—its largest oil customer—to intervene.

DATA : Raw Steel Production

WTI Crude Oil : Update

WTI crude oil futures tumbled 7.2% to settle at $68.50 per barrel on Monday, after Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar resulted in no reported casualties, easing fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions. 

The attack, launched in retaliation for US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, was intercepted by Qatari defenses, prompting a sharp retreat from $74.30—the highest level since January. 

While markets are now pricing in a potential de-escalation, significant risks remain—chief among them the threat of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for about 20% of global oil flows. 

Although Iran's parliament reportedly backed the move, the final decision rests with the country's national security council. 

US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned that such a step would be "economic suicide" for Iran and urged China—its largest oil customer—to intervene.

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Key Maritime Choke Points


Maritime transport is an essential part of international trade—approximately 80% of global merchandise is shipped via sea.

Because of its importance, commercial shipping relies on strategic trade routes to move goods efficiently. 

These waterways are used by thousands of vessels a year—but it's not always smooth sailing. 

In fact, there are certain points along these routes that pose a risk to the whole system.

Here's a look at the world's most vulnerable maritime bottlenecks—also known as choke points—as identified by GIS.



What's a Choke Point?

Choke points are strategic, narrow passages that connect two larger areas to one another. When it comes to maritime trade, these are typically straits or canals that see high volumes of traffic because of their optimal location.

Despite their convenience, these vital points pose several risks:

Structural risks: As demonstrated in the recent Suez Canal blockage, ships can crash along the shore of a canal if the passage is too narrow, causing traffic jams that can last for days.

Geopolitical risks: Because of their high traffic, choke points are particularly vulnerable to blockades or deliberate disruptions during times of political unrest.
The type and degree of risk varies, depending on location. Here's a look at some of the biggest threats, at eight of the world's major choke points.


Because of their high risk, alternatives for some of these key routes have been proposed in the past—for instance, in 2013 Nicaraguan Congress approved a $40 billion dollar project proposal to build a canal that was meant to rival the Panama Canal.

As of today, it has yet to materialize.



A Closer Look:

Despite their vulnerabilities, these choke points remain critical waterways that facilitate international trade. Below, we dive into a few of the key areas to provide some context on just how important they are to global trade.

The Panama Canal

The Panama Canal is a lock-type canal that provides a shortcut for ships traveling between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Ships sailing between the east and west coasts of the U.S. save over 8,000 nautical miles by using the canal—which roughly shortens their trip by 21 days.

In 2019, 252 million long tons of goods were transported through the Panama Canal, which generated over $2.6 billion in tolls.

The Suez Canal

The Suez Canal is an Egyptian waterway that connects Europe to Asia. Without this route, ships would need to sail around Africa, which would add approximately seven days to their trips. In 2019, nearly 19,000 vessels, and 1 billion tons of cargo, traveled through the Suez Canal.

In an effort to mitigate risk, the Egyptian government embarked on a major expansion project for the canal back in 2015. 

But, given the recent blockage caused by a Taiwanese container ship, it's clear that the waterway is still vulnerable to obstruction.

The Strait of Malacca

At its smallest point, the Strait of Malacca is approximately 1.5 nautical miles, making it one of the world's narrowest choke points. 

Despite its size, it's one of Asia's most critical waterways, since it provides a critical connection between China, India, and Southeast Asia. 

This choke point creates a risky situation for the 130,000 or so ships that visit the Port of Singapore each year.

The area is also known to have problems with piracy—in 2019, there were 30 piracy incidents, according to private information group ReCAAP ISC.

The Strait of Hormuz

Controlled by Iran, the Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, ultimately draining into the Arabian Sea. 

It's a primary vein for the world's oil supply, transporting approximately 21 million barrels per day.

Historically, it's also been a site of regional conflict. For instance, tankers and commercial ships were attacked in that area during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is another primary waterway for the world's oil and natural gas. 

Nestled between Africa and the Middle East, the critical route connects the Mediterranean Sea (via the Suez Canal) to the Indian Ocean.

Like the Strait of Malacca, it's well known as a high-risk area for pirate attacks. 

In May 2020, a UK chemical tanker was attacked off the coast of Yemen–the ninth pirate attack in the area that year.

Due to the strategic nature of the region, there is a strong military presence in nearby Djibouti, including China's first ever foreign military base.

Saturday, June 21, 2025

US Fed's Daly

Fed's Daly: Things are in balance

  • So far the economy is in a good place and so is policy
  • Concerns about tariff impact on inflation aren't as large as they were when they were first announced
  • Many possibilities on how much of tariffs pass through to customers
  • Fundamentals of economy are moving to where an interest rate cut may be necessary
  • CEOs have cautious optimism on tariffs
  • I look more to the autumn rather than July for a rate cut
  • Unless we see a faltering labor market, autumn looks more appropriate
  • This is a pushback against Waller from earlier but it's not a surprise to the market, which is pricing a 15% chancee of a July cut.

US Fed's Barkin

  • He is in no rush to cut interest rates.
  • Not ready to dismiss inflation risk from tariffs.
  • Can't ignore a spike in inflation if it comes, price indices is still above target.
  • Nothing urgent in data warranting a rate cut at this point.
  • Job market, consumption holding up.
  • Firms say they expect to raise prices later in the year as more expensive imported goods work into their inventories.
  • Firms not impacted by tariffs see confusion over trade policy as a moment to raise prices for other reasons.
  • No conviction on where trade policy will settle or on how it will impact prices or jobs.
  • Firms still in wait and see mode on capital spending, hiring plans.

Comments are in contrast to FOMC member Christopher Waller who is not all that concerned about inflationary impact from tariffs.

US Fed's Waller


Fed's Waller: I'm all in favor of saying 'maybe we should think about cutting' in July.

  • I'm all in favor of saying 'maybe we should think about cutting at the next meeting'
  • Tariffs 'are not going to cause persistent inflation'
  • Tariffs will be a one-time factor
  • The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates
  • The job market is solid but starting to see things like high unemployment for recent grads
  • The Fed has been on pause for six months waiting for an inflation shock that has not arrived
  • The Fed has room to bring rates down and then can see what happens with inflation
  • The Fed is in a position as early as July for cuts
  • Tariffs will not be completely passed through, a 10% tariff on all imports would not have much impact on overall inflation
  • I'm not sure if the committee would go along

Stock Index Update

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% on Friday, its third straight loss, while the Nasdaq fell 0.5% and the Dow added 35 points as investors weighed the prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Fed Governor Waller's suggestion that rate cuts could arrive as early as July contrasted sharply with Chair Powell's more cautious, data-dependent stance. Semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and TSMC, dropped over 1% following reports that the US may revoke export waivers, raising concerns over global chip supply chains. 

Geopolitical uncertainty deepened after President Trump delayed a decision on potential US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, even as Israel intensified its strikes on key Iranian targets. 

Friday's "triple witching" expiration added volatility, prompting a rebound in shorter-dated Treasuries and driving two-year yields down four basis points. 

On the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Dow was flat and Nasdaq added 0.2%.



Wednesday, June 18, 2025

US Housing Starts

US housing starts dropped sharply by 9.8% month-over-month in May 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million units, down from an upwardly revised 1.392 million in April and well below market expectations of 1.36 million. 

This marked the weakest level since May 2020, in the early aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, as high mortgage rates and an elevated supply of homes for sale dampened builder sentiment and construction activity. 

Starts for multi-family buildings with five or more units plummeted 30.4% to 316,000 units, while single-family starts—the largest segment of homebuilding—edged up just 0.4% to 924,000 units. 

Regionally, housing starts declined sharply in the Northeast (-40.0% to 105,000 units), Midwest (-10.2% to 184,000), and South (-10.5% to 693,000), but rose in the West (+15.1% to 274,000). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) in the US fell by 9bps to 6.84% in the week ended June 13th, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

This marks the lowest level in six weeks, tracking a decline in Treasury yields as the conflict between Israel and Iran triggered a flight to safety. 

"Mortgage rates decreased last week, driven by financial market volatility caused by current geopolitical conflict and ongoing tariff uncertainties. 

Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers' purchase decisions", said Joel Kan, MBA's vice president. 

Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $806,500) decreased to 6.81% from 6.93%. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.57% from 6.6%. 

source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

FOMC Dot Plot

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as anticipated, at 4.5% today.

Here is the updated FOMC dot plot.

US Fed Funds Interest Rate

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting in June 2025, in line with expectations, as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of President Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. 

Officials also noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. 

Despite this, the Fed continues to project two rate cuts later this year, though it anticipates only one quarter-percentage-point in 2026 and 2027. 

In its updated projections, the Fed downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% (vs 1.7% in March) and for 2026 to 1.6% (vs 1.8%), while leaving the 2027 estimate unchanged at 1.8%. 

The unemployment rate is now expected at 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026 (vs 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively). 

As for inflation, the Fed sees the PCE rate at 3.0% in 2025 (vs 2.7%), easing to 2.4% in 2026 (vs 2.2%), and 2.1% in 2027 (vs 2.0%). 

source: Federal Reserve

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

US Retail Sales

Retail sales in the US declined 0.9% month-over-month in May 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in April and worse than market forecast of a 0.7% fall. 

It is the biggest decrease in four months, as consumers pulled back ahead of expected tariffs. 

Sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers recorded the largest decline (-3.5%), followed by building material & garden equipment suppliers (-2.7%) and gasoline stations (-2%). 

source: U.S. Census Bureau

WTI Crude Oil Update

WTI crude oil futures hovered near $75 per barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since January, as escalating conflict in the Middle East fueled fears of supply disruptions. 

President Trump met with his national security team after warning on social media of a possible strike on Iran's leader and demanding the country's unconditional surrender. 

Simultaneously, Israel's military confirmed it had launched strikes near Tehran and detected missile launches from Iran, with interception efforts underway. 

Nevertheless, Iran's crude-exporting infrastructure has been spared, with most of the fallout limited to shipping. 

The oil market has also remained relatively stable, supported by ample global supply, including rising OPEC+ output and record-high US production. 

Meanwhile, US industry data showed crude inventories dropped by over 10 million barrels last week, potentially marking the largest draw since last summer if confirmed by official figures.

Japan Exports

Japan's exports fell 1.7% yoy to a four-month low of JPY 8,134.99 billion in May 2025, reversing a 2.0% gain in April and marking the first decline since last September. amid the impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs. 

Still, the drop was milder than the market consensus of a 3.8% fall. 

Shipments to the U.S. slumped 11.1%, the second straight monthly drop, due to weaker demand for cars, auto parts, and chip-making machinery. 

Meantime, exports to China shrank 8.8%. 

In contrast, sales rose to the EU (4.9%), Russia (5.2%), and ASEAN countries (0.1%). 

PM Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Trump agreed to extend trade talks after failing to reach a breakthrough recently. 

Tokyo continues to seek an exemption from the 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50% in early June. 

A 24% reciprocal tariff is set to take effect on July 9 unless a deal is reached, posing a risk to Japan's fragile recovery, which is already struggling due to weak private consumption. 

source: Ministry of Finance, Japan

US & China GDP

Monday, June 16, 2025

Auto Insurance Rates

Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 84% over the past 5 years. That's the biggest 5-year spike on record.

Update : US Dollar

US dollar as a % of global reserve has fallen from 67% to 57% in just the last decade.

China's Gold Holdings

China's central bank increased its gold holdings by 2 tonnes in April, posting their 6th consecutive monthly purchase.

This brings China's gold reserves to a record 2,295 tonnes, or 6.8% of total reserve assets.

According to Goldman Sachs, China actually purchased 27 tonnes of gold in April, or 13 times more than officially reported.

As a result, central bank and other institutional gold demand, excluding the US, hit 68 tonnes.

Year-to-date, central bank demand has reached an average of 88 tonnes per month.

World central banks can't get enough gold.

Update : August WTI Crude Oil

Update : August Gold

Copper Update

Copper futures hovered below $4.40 per pound on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop of around 24%, pressured by a surprise US tariff ...